MTV Challenge Podcast

Fresh off a correct Super Bowl prediction, I discuss MTV Challenge's most recent episode, and the season in general, with Matt Yetsko. We discuss Sarah's "decision", our favorites to win it all, and which female we would most like to be paired with if we were in the Challenge.




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Super Bowl Pick!

After tremendous amounts of thoughtful research and analysis, I have come up with the Super Bowl pick for tonight's game. (See below)

 28-25 (so I win the squares pool!)


Congrats Patriots on your fourth Super Bowl win!





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2015 Divisional Round Preview

 

After going a horrendous 0-4 last week against the spread (but hey, 3-1 straight up!), I think I have a feel of the postseason now. I mean…I do more than last week, at least.

Ravens at Patriots (-7)

The Ravens are just a different beast in the playoffs. Flacco suddenly can not only do no wrong, he makes only SMART decisions. The pass rushers show up big time. The big players (Smith x2, Suggs, Jacobyyyyyy) make big plays. The other team commits a pass interference that may or may not be a correct call. Something wacky happens. (No, that link doesn’t go to the Rahim Moore play, what kind of masochist sports fan do you think I am? I'd much rather watch a Ravens defender grab Eric Decker too early and not get called for it!)

Bottom line is that they can go into New England and EXPECT to win, not just hope to win. And all their big players will play like it. Here’s the thing though: they’ve never faced a healthy Gronk in the playoffs. Throw in the fact that this is the best defense New England’s had since the Bruschi years, and I think this is where the remarkable run ends. Ravens get a few big plays, but won’t be able to do much most of the game.

Pick: BAL: 13, NE: 19

Panthers at Seahawks (-11)

Incredibly, the Panthers and Hawks have played three times in the past few years with the Seahawks winning all three by just a total of 13 points. They play them tough. Now I know, Cam Newton is banged up, the Panthers don’t really have much of an offense, and the old adage says to beware the team that looked almost too good in round one (granted, it was mostly Carolina’s defense that looked good, holding Arizona to … 78 YARDS TOTAL, OMG, LINDLEY!)

This is basically do you go with recent team-vs-team history (which says this game will be close) or recent team history (which says that Seattle is playing at an extremely higher level than Carolina right now)? Seattle broke out of its funk offensively the last couple of weeks. I think this is close early, but Seattle pulls away late.

Pick: CAR: 10, SEA: 24

Cowboys at Packers (-5.5)

Look, the Cowboys probably got outplayed by Detroit last week, but you cannot blame the game on the refs. Detroit was not able to score that entire second half, save for a field goal. Field goals don’t win games on the road. They had enough opportunities to put that game away, and weren’t able to. By that I mean they had 4^th and 1 and kicked the worst punt of all time.

Now, the Cowboys get to play where they really excel: anywhere other than Jerry Jones’ stadium. They are 8-0 on the road. They have the playmakers to go into Lambeau and steal a game from a Packers team with Aaron Rodgers less than 100% (heck, maybe less than 75%). It’s going to be frigid. Points are going to be hard to come by. And, most importantly, I have to take one upset...

Pick: DAL: 20, GB: 19

Colts at Broncos (-7)

The thing that scares me the most about this game is how non-scared I am. I have all the respect in the world for Andrew Luck, and look forward to the not-so-distant future after Brady and Manning retire where Indy is dominating the AFC year after year (“look forward to” the same way a Jets fan looks forward to an upcoming NFL Draft). But Luck has to fight an uphill battle here. Yes, he very much can (and has to, and will) outplay Peyton Manning in this game, but even that has to make up for the difference in running games – not even close, the distance in run defense – also not close, the difference in weapons in the passing game, and the secondary.

If anything, if Luck DOESN’T outplay Manning, it’s probably better for the Colts, which means some stuff happened early and the Broncos are playing from behind. Please God, do not let that happen. C.J. Anderson is probably the key to this game. He has been on a tear lately, and this is still a Colts defense that gave up 200 yards to Jonas Gray, even though they looked better this week against Hill/Bernard. This one is waiting for the Broncos to take it, and I think they will.

Pick: IND: 23, DEN: 31

Enjoy the Divisional Round everyone!

Playoffs:

Spread: 0-4

Straight: 3-1

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Wild Card Weekend Preview

After writing an extensive amount on this NFL season as promised, it’s finally time for the playoffs. Let’s get right into it.

Cardinals at Panthers (-5.5)

Gee, I wonder why this is the first game of the playoffs… You mean to tell me that Ryan Lindley versus a team with a losing record isn’t must-see TV?

The only thing I worry about in this game is that it is almost too obvious that the Panthers are going to win here. They have been the hot team as of late, while Arizona is trending in the opposite direction. But of course, all it takes is one game to change things in the playoffs.

Pick: ARI: 20, CAR: 23

Ravens at Steelers (-3.5)

The trendy team to bet on in the AFC versus the team that had two incredible road victories two years ago en route to their second Super Bowl. Le’Veon Bell is out, which means Roethlisberger will be throwing often against a porous Ravens secondary…or does it? Forecasts in Pittsburgh call for rain Saturday night nonstop during the game.

This feels like a low-scoring game despite the capabilities of both teams’ offenses and holes in their defenses. I think Pittsburgh gets just enough big plays to win, but I don’t feel good about this one.

Pick: BAL: 16, PIT: 20

Bengals at Colts (-4)

Andrew Luck gave us the best playoff game from last year. There’s a good chance that he has to be just as good in this one as he was in the end of that one. Yes, Indy beat Cincy badly early in the year, but this Colts defense has not looked nearly as good since that game.

Meanwhile, it’s impossible to know which Andy Dalton will show up in this big game, but I do like Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard against the Colts front seven which ideally would take the pressure off of Dalton. It scares me how much I like a team led by Dalton in the playoffs, but I think Cincy takes this one.

Pick: CIN: 28, IND: 17

Lions at Cowboys (-7)

The Detroit Lions haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 2, and then the Packers in Week 3. Meanwhile, after what could have been a season ending loss on Thanksgiving, Dallas has strung together a nice run in December to take back the NFC East. Dallas seems to be firing on all cylinders right now, and I think that the only way this is close is if Calvin Johnson has one of those “Do I Have to Remind You How Elite I Am?”-type games.

Pick: DET: 25, DAL: 37

Enjoy Wild Card Weekend, everyone!

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Week One 2014 Picks

"Oh dear god. He's posting in his blog again. Is he ok? Should we give him a hug? How terrible is this going to be? Why did I come here? Just because he linked it on his twitter and I'm bored at work I suppose... I don't even like football, why did I click this? Is this going to be funny or just some sports stuff that will go over my head? Is he going to post once and then not again until the playoffs? I see he gave up on those podcasts...FINALLY!"

Have no fear ladies and gents. Even with 1.5 jobs, grad school, planning a road trip, going to concerts even though I can't really afford them, and drunk-texting people I shouldn't -- I still will find time this NFL season to conduct my weekly picks, both straight up (which anyone can do) and against the spread (in case you like losing money). That is dedication.

First, let's take a look at the big picture: Here are my 12 playoff teams for the 2014 season, as usual in .gif form (with one exception):

AFC

East winner:

North winner:

South winner:

West winner:

Wildcards:

NFC

East winner:

North winner:

South winner:

West winner:

Wildcards:

There's no point of picking a Super Bowl winner quite yet. I'll do that when the playoffs start.

So without further ado, here are my Week One picks:

(Note: I'm getting my spreads from ESPN's pigskin pick'em since that is where I am picking/keeping track of them. This is also nice because usually they don't change their spreads if something happens mid-week like someone getting injured or suspended or something.)

Last season straight up: 0-0
Last season vs. spread: 0-0

Actually I have no idea if that's accurate, but I can't find my picks from last year, so let's just go with that.

Packers at Seahawks (-5.5)

Everyone loves the first night of the NFL season, but rarely has this first game been that good (unless you're into Manning throwing 7 touchdowns on the Ravens...which...how could you not be?). I think the Packers defense will be their undoing this year. They should be able to score, but the Seattle offense gets to go against a questionable secondary where the Pack has to face the PED-fueled Seahawks secondary (and the 12th man OMG!)

Pick: Seahawks


Saints at Falcons (-1.5) ---I highly doubt this is the actual line, but it's what they have on ESPN

Do these teams start every season against each other? Certainly seems like it. I like the Saints a lot this year, maybe to even come out of the NFC -- of course this would require them to get the #1 seed (which they can do) because I am not picking them outdoors in January. Really looking forward to watching Julio Jones play football again this year, because we all need more of this in our lives.

Pick: Saints (and to win)


Bills at Bears (-6.5)

I think the Bills might be the worst team in the NFL, and you just saw that I think the Bears win their division. So how do you think I'm picking this game?

Pick: Bears


Bengals at Ravens (-2.5)

I have no confidence in this division. It always feels like three slightly above average teams and then the Browns. I think the Bengals are the best of the bunch again, but their inevitable fall will happen in the playoffs when Andy Dalton does something stupid. Meanwhile, I'll say it, I don't want the Ravens in the playoffs. Weird sh*t happens. (I bet you know where that link goes)

Pick: Bengals (and to win)


Browns at Steelers (-5.5)

I'm really hoping I got a Ravens fan thinking they were going to watch Rahim Moore get burnt by Jacoby Jones and instead watched the worst playoff kick since Scott Norwood. Probably not because no one will likely read this. But whatever. I guess that means I don't really need to talk about this game. Anyway, are the Steelers actually going to be good this year? They have not been for awhile. Have they gotten Ben any linemen this year?

Pick: Steelers


Titans at Chiefs (-6.5)

Man the Chiefs are going to regress this season. It's almost too obvious. Incredibly lucky last season. Have to play the NFC West this season. Broncos twice. Chargers twice. Not good. Take the Titans here, maybe to win outright if you're frisky.

Pick: Titans (--explaining this once---this means straight-up: Chiefs, but Titans with the spread..if I say "and to win" after, then I'd be picking the Titans for both pools)


Raiders at Jets (-6.5)

The Jets have this easy game to start and then the early-season schedule from hell: at GB, vs CHI, vs DET, at SD, then vs DEN and at NE four days after it! Here Jets, play the two best teams in your conference in a span of four days. It's like a beheading as opposed to cancer I suppose. Note: fully aware the Jets at 1-4 will now beat the Broncos before getting destroyed 52-10 to New England.

Pick: Jets


Vikings at Rams (-6.5)

Jeez, Idk if they made this spread before or after the Bradford injury, but wow, yeah let me in on that Shaun Hill giving a touchdown pick.

Pick: Vikings (and to win)


Patriots at Dolphins (+3.5)

I'm not sure if the Dolphins are going to be better this year. I mean, I think they will BE a better team, but they finished 8-8 last year and feel like an 8-8 team again this year. Meanwhile, I like what NE did defensively, and they are simply a different and way better team when Gronk is playing. Of course, it's likely that will not be the case all season.

Pick: Patriots


Jaguars at Eagles (-11.5)

Man I want to see Bortles start. I've seen enough of Chad Henne. C'mon Jags. Get it together. Also, I feel like the Eagles have this division by default. Is there a second good team in the NFC East? The Cowboys have no defense. The Redskins won't have a healthy QB by week 3, and have a questionable defense of their own. The Giants have no running game, and Eli Manning, who sucks for three years and then wins a Super Bowl the fourth...luckily for humankind we're still on the third year out of that cycle of four.

Pick: Jaguars


Washington's Professional Football Team at Texans (-2.5)

Fun fact: these teams combined for 5 wins last season, which was less than Bills. The Jaguars lost thier first 8 games and won more than either of these teams, beating the Texans for of those wins. God these teams sucked last year. Fortunately for them, one of them added Clowney to a D-Line that already featured the best defensive player in the game, and the other one only face 4 playoff teams from last season.

Pick: Texans


49ers at Cowboys (+4.5)

If this we're the 90s this would be a fantastic game. It, however, is not the nineties. However, here is a plug for the 90s Playlist my roommates and I created for our 90s party that if you're reading this you probably went to: 1990's Party Playlist.

Pick: Cowboys (and to win)


Panthers at Bucs (+1.5)

Really, this and the above game are the only late afternoon games? This is week one! Do you know how often the RedZone channel will be doing nothing from 4:30-8 p.m.? Scott Hansen will update us at least 20 times that Lesean McCoy rushed for 180 yards and 3 TDs against the Jaguars, all but solidifying your week one loss in fantasy -- Unless you have McCoy, in which case he'll show the play he got injured for the season on 10 times.

Pick: Bucs (and to win)


Colts at Broncos (-6.5)

Luck is going to be fantastic this season. The bad news is, he has to be. Shame for the Colts, if they actually improved in the offseason, this would be the year to make a run at the Super Bowl, with Denver getting the hard schedule (NFC West + AFC East + Colts/Bengals), Patriots voluntarily letting linemen go and the inevitable Gronk injury (and really still no great receivers other than him), and the AFC North not scaring anybody. Don't overlook the Welker suspension here or that they lost to Indy last year; Broncos will win this one and cover.

Pick: Broncos


Giants at Lions (-4.5)

Matt Stafford - the QB who puts up good numbers but doesn't win. Eli Manning - the QB who doesn't put up good numbers but somehow has two Super Bowl rings. Get your popcorn ready.

Pick: Lions


Chargers at Cardinals (-3.5)

This Chargers team kind of scares me. They have a much easier first few games than Denver does (they could be 5-1 before the meeting in Denver), I like their additions on defense plus Ingram returning from injury, and I think Mike McCoy is going to be a very good head coach. Meanwhile, the Cardinals still have Carson Palmer and face the 49ers and Seahawks twice each. That last sentence is why I don't have them in the playoffs.

Pick: Chargers (and to win)






Thanks for reading this everyone. I'm glad to be back writing for all of you. Enjoy week one.






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Championship Preview Part 2

Andy and I preview the Championship games, then come up with a Brady/Manning drinking game for you crazy kids out there.





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Championship Week Preview

Matt Yetsko and I break down the past weekend's games, give our Super Bowl matchups, and discuss both the AFC and NFC Championship. We also exchange drunk voicemails.

(Tip: Hit the download button on the player below...It takes some time but freezes less...thanks)




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