Friday, March 13, 2015

MTV Challenge Podcast





Fresh off a correct Super Bowl prediction, I discuss MTV Challenge's most recent episode, and the season in general, with Matt Yetsko. We discuss Sarah's "decision", our favorites to win it all, and which female we would most like to be paired with if we were in the Challenge.




Sunday, February 1, 2015

Super Bowl Pick!

After tremendous amounts of thoughtful research and analysis, I have come up with the Super Bowl pick for tonight's game. (See below)































































































 28-25 (so I win the squares pool!)


Congrats Patriots on your fourth Super Bowl win!





Friday, January 9, 2015

2015 Divisional Round Preview


 

After going a horrendous 0-4 last week against the spread (but hey, 3-1 straight up!), I think I have a feel of the postseason now. I mean…I do more than last week, at least.


Ravens at Patriots (-7)

The Ravens are just a different beast in the playoffs. Flacco suddenly can not only do no wrong, he makes only SMART decisions. The pass rushers show up big time. The big players (Smith x2, Suggs, Jacobyyyyyy) make big plays. The other team commits a pass interference that may or may not be a correct call. Something wacky happens. (No, that link doesn’t go to the Rahim Moore play, what kind of masochist sports fan do you think I am? I'd much rather watch a Ravens defender grab Eric Decker too early and not get called for it!)

Bottom line is that they can go into New England and EXPECT to win, not just hope to win. And all their big players will play like it. Here’s the thing though: they’ve never faced a healthy Gronk in the playoffs. Throw in the fact that this is the best defense New England’s had since the Bruschi years, and I think this is where the remarkable run ends. Ravens get a few big plays, but won’t be able to do much most of the game.

Pick: BAL: 13, NE: 19


Panthers at Seahawks (-11)

Incredibly, the Panthers and Hawks have played three times in the past few years with the Seahawks winning all three by just a total of 13 points. They play them tough. Now I know, Cam Newton is banged up, the Panthers don’t really have much of an offense, and the old adage says to beware the team that looked almost too good in round one (granted, it was mostly Carolina’s defense that looked good, holding Arizona to … 78 YARDS TOTAL, OMG, LINDLEY!)

This is basically do you go with recent team-vs-team history (which says this game will be close) or recent team history (which says that Seattle is playing at an extremely higher level than Carolina right now)? Seattle broke out of its funk offensively the last couple of weeks. I think this is close early, but Seattle pulls away late.

Pick: CAR: 10, SEA: 24


Cowboys at Packers (-5.5)

Look, the Cowboys probably got outplayed by Detroit last week, but you cannot blame the game on the refs. Detroit was not able to score that entire second half, save for a field goal. Field goals don’t win games on the road. They had enough opportunities to put that game away, and weren’t able to. By that I mean they had 4th and 1 and kicked the worst punt of all time.

Now, the Cowboys get to play where they really excel: anywhere other than Jerry Jones’ stadium. They are 8-0 on the road. They have the playmakers to go into Lambeau and steal a game from a Packers team with Aaron Rodgers less than 100% (heck, maybe less than 75%). It’s going to be frigid. Points are going to be hard to come by. And, most importantly, I have to take one upset...

Pick: DAL: 20, GB: 19


Colts at Broncos (-7)

The thing that scares me the most about this game is how non-scared I am. I have all the respect in the world for Andrew Luck, and look forward to the not-so-distant future after Brady and Manning retire where Indy is dominating the AFC year after year (“look forward to” the same way a Jets fan looks forward to an upcoming NFL Draft). But Luck has to fight an uphill battle here. Yes, he very much can (and has to, and will) outplay Peyton Manning in this game, but even that has to make up for the difference in running games – not even close, the distance in run defense – also not close, the difference in weapons in the passing game, and the secondary.

If anything, if Luck DOESN’T outplay Manning, it’s probably better for the Colts, which means some stuff happened early and the Broncos are playing from behind. Please God, do not let that happen. C.J. Anderson is probably the key to this game. He has been on a tear lately, and this is still a Colts defense that gave up 200 yards to Jonas Gray, even though they looked better this week against Hill/Bernard. This one is waiting for the Broncos to take it, and I think they will.

Pick: IND: 23, DEN: 31


Enjoy the Divisional Round everyone!

Playoffs:

Spread: 0-4
Straight: 3-1



Saturday, January 3, 2015

Wild Card Weekend Preview




After writing an extensive amount on this NFL season as promised, it’s finally time for the playoffs. Let’s get right into it.


Cardinals at Panthers (-5.5)

Gee, I wonder why this is the first game of the playoffs… You mean to tell me that Ryan Lindley versus a team with a losing record isn’t must-see TV?

The only thing I worry about in this game is that it is almost too obvious that the Panthers are going to win here. They have been the hot team as of late, while Arizona is trending in the opposite direction. But of course, all it takes is one game to change things in the playoffs.


Pick: ARI: 20, CAR: 23

Ravens at Steelers (-3.5)

The trendy team to bet on in the AFC versus the team that had two incredible road victories two years ago en route to their second Super Bowl. Le’Veon Bell is out, which means Roethlisberger will be throwing often against a porous Ravens secondary…or does it? Forecasts in Pittsburgh call for rain Saturday night nonstop during the game.

This feels like a low-scoring game despite the capabilities of both teams’ offenses and holes in their defenses. I think Pittsburgh gets just enough big plays to win, but I don’t feel good about this one.

Pick: BAL: 16, PIT: 20


Bengals at Colts (-4)

Andrew Luck gave us the best playoff game from last year. There’s a good chance that he has to be just as good in this one as he was in the end of that one. Yes, Indy beat Cincy badly early in the year, but this Colts defense has not looked nearly as good since that game.

Meanwhile, it’s impossible to know which Andy Dalton will show up in this big game, but I do like Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard against the Colts front seven which ideally would take the pressure off of Dalton. It scares me how much I like a team led by Dalton in the playoffs, but I think Cincy takes this one.

Pick: CIN: 28, IND: 17


Lions at Cowboys (-7)

The Detroit Lions haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 2, and then the Packers in Week 3. Meanwhile, after what could have been a season ending loss on Thanksgiving, Dallas has strung together a nice run in December to take back the NFC East. Dallas seems to be firing on all cylinders right now, and I think that the only way this is close is if Calvin Johnson has one of those “Do I Have to Remind You How Elite I Am?”-type games.

Pick: DET: 25, DAL: 37


Enjoy Wild Card Weekend, everyone!