After going a horrendous 0-4 last week against the spread
(but hey, 3-1 straight up!), I think I have a feel of the postseason now. I
mean…I do more than last week, at least.
Ravens at Patriots (-7)
The Ravens are just a different beast in the playoffs.
Flacco suddenly can not only do no wrong, he makes only SMART decisions. The
pass rushers show up big time. The big players (Smith x2, Suggs, Jacobyyyyyy)
make big plays. The other team commits a pass interference that may or may not
be a correct call. Something wacky happens. (No, that link doesn’t go to the
Rahim Moore play, what kind of masochist sports fan do you think I am? I'd much rather watch a Ravens defender grab Eric Decker too early and not get called for it!)
Bottom line is that they can go into New England and EXPECT
to win, not just hope to win. And all their big players will play like it.
Here’s the thing though: they’ve never faced a healthy Gronk in the playoffs.
Throw in the fact that this is the best defense New England’s had since the
Bruschi years, and I think this is where the remarkable run ends. Ravens get a
few big plays, but won’t be able to do much most of the game.
Pick: BAL: 13, NE: 19
Panthers at Seahawks (-11)
Incredibly, the Panthers and Hawks have played three times
in the past few years with the Seahawks winning all three by just a total of 13
points. They play them tough. Now I know, Cam Newton is banged up, the Panthers
don’t really have much of an offense, and the old adage says to beware the team
that looked almost too good in round one (granted, it was mostly Carolina’s
defense that looked good, holding Arizona to … 78 YARDS TOTAL, OMG, LINDLEY!)
This is basically do you go with recent team-vs-team history
(which says this game will be close) or recent team history (which says that
Seattle is playing at an extremely higher level than Carolina right now)?
Seattle broke out of its funk offensively the last couple of weeks. I think
this is close early, but Seattle pulls away late.
Pick: CAR: 10, SEA: 24
Cowboys at Packers (-5.5)
Look, the Cowboys probably got outplayed by Detroit last
week, but you cannot blame the game on the refs. Detroit was not able to score
that entire second half, save for a field goal. Field goals don’t win games on
the road. They had enough opportunities to put that game away, and weren’t able
to. By that I mean they had 4th and 1 and kicked the worst punt of
all time.
Now, the Cowboys get to play where they really excel:
anywhere other than Jerry Jones’ stadium. They are 8-0 on the road. They have
the playmakers to go into Lambeau and steal a game from a Packers team with
Aaron Rodgers less than 100% (heck, maybe less than 75%). It’s going to be
frigid. Points are going to be hard to come by. And, most importantly, I have
to take one upset...
Pick: DAL: 20, GB: 19
Colts at Broncos (-7)
The thing that scares me the most about this game is how
non-scared I am. I have all the respect in the world for Andrew Luck, and look
forward to the not-so-distant future after Brady and Manning retire where Indy
is dominating the AFC year after year (“look forward to” the same way a Jets
fan looks forward to an upcoming NFL Draft). But Luck has to fight an uphill
battle here. Yes, he very much can (and has to, and will) outplay Peyton
Manning in this game, but even that has to make up for the difference in
running games – not even close, the distance in run defense – also not close,
the difference in weapons in the passing game, and the secondary.
If anything, if Luck DOESN’T outplay Manning, it’s probably
better for the Colts, which means some stuff happened early and the Broncos are
playing from behind. Please God, do not let that happen. C.J. Anderson is probably the key to this game. He has been on a tear lately, and this is still a Colts defense that gave up 200 yards to Jonas Gray, even though they looked better this week against Hill/Bernard. This one is waiting
for the Broncos to take it, and I think they will.
Pick: IND: 23, DEN: 31
Enjoy the Divisional Round everyone!
Playoffs:
Spread: 0-4
Straight: 3-1
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