MLB Playoff Preview
Well it’s October and baseball playoffs are about to start. We all rememeber how fun October baseball can be… (pause for you to remember… I’m remembering last year, you can remember whatever year you wish…) well now it’s beginning again.
But there’s just so many games. And in some of them, people like Vincente Padilla and Nick Blackburn could be pitching… Needless to say, you’re not going to watch all of them.
Alas, you need a blog to help guide you through the playoffs. I’m here to tell you that there’s only 2 that can do this. And you want the one that will not continually brag about his fantasy baseball team (nor has any reason to), so stay right here.
First up: the NL
COLORADO ROCKIES
Often thought to be offensively challenged (or at least that it was their weak point…) the Rockies had the second-best offense in the National League in 2009. What makes the Rockies so offensively potent is their versatility. They boast the most talented bench in the NL by far, and they are #1 in the NL in RBIs with 2 outs and RISP. The Rockies have very few veterans on the offensive side of the ball, but Todd Helton is as reliable as they come. Helton had a down year last year but has provided both the leadership that left when Matt Holliday was shipped to Oakland, and the numbers that were missing last year. Perhaps the biggest individual improvement from last year offensively is shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo has produced 36 more runs this year than his opposing position-mate in the first round, Jimmy Rollins. Carlos Gonzalez has been tremendous since the break and will most likely get the bulk of the starts in left, along with Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, and Ryan Spilborghs filling in the holes. Brad Hawpe has had his best season in the majors and looks to carry that into the postseason.
Ubaldo Jimenez leads the pitching staff that has overachieved all season. Jorge De La Rosa is out for the first series with a groin injury, making their rotation: Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel, and Jason Marquis. All very capable pitchers, but can be shaky as easily as they can deliver a quality start. All 5 of the pitchers mentioned however are smart and know their strengths and weaknesses well, especially Jimenez and Hammel who have been hot the second half of the season.
VERDICT: Rockies fans are no strangers to “Rock-tober” as it happened two years ago. For those of you who don’t know what Rock-tober is, it’s where they completely demolish the NL, then roll over and take it from whoever comes out of the AL. This team is the hottest team in the NL, as they were in 07, but don’t look for the same results.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
There’s something about this year’s Dodger’s team that’s different from last year. Perhaps it’s just all the young players are a year older and wiser, but this team has depth. As many times as you’ve seen sportscenter in the morning show them hit some sort of walk-off to win a game (usually by Andre Eithier), they have the biggest run differential (runs scored minus runs allowed) of any team. Their lineup boasts playoff vet and slugger Manny Ramirez, along with a bunch of good players entering their prime: Eithier, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Russell Martin. Add the role-playing veterans of Juan Pierre, Casey Blake, and Rafael Furcal and you have a very potent lineup up and down.
The Dodgers’ starting pitching is nothing to drool over, but the season that Randy Wolf has had is very noteworthy. The Dodgers start their rotation with 2 tough lefties in Wolf and young Clayton Kershaw, which is key for facing teams like the Cardinals and Phillies, who both don’t hit well against lefties. The Dodgers have home-field throughout the NL playoffs, and Kershaw’s numbers at home have been incredible this year. Chad Billingsley and Vincente Padilla will complete the rotation.
VERDICT: While most see a first round upset, don’t be surprised if Carpenter and Wainwright are neutralized by Wolf and Kershaw, and the first two games become a battle of the bullpens. This is what the Dodgers are hoping for because their bullpen boasts the combo of Jonathon Broxton and George Sherrill.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Charlie Manuel’s crew look to defend their World Championship in 09 but it will not be easy. While the lineup is obviously nothing if not improved over what it was last year, the Phillies have plenty of issues to worry about. However, Jimmy Rollins is not one of them. Rollins had a miserable beginning of the season, but has been great since the break hitting .272 with 17 home runs. Shane Victorino, who was key in last year’s NLDS, comes in as the Phillies leading hitter. The meat of the order has been struggling lately, but always has the potential to turn it on in a moment’s notice. Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, and Chase Utley have been solid all year and right handed Jayson Werth has been the most improved player from last year. This team can hit, but they can also leave men on base, which they did last year, but last year they had a dependable bullpen to negate it. This year they don’t, so how they do with RISP will determine if they parade down Broad Street again.
The Phillies came up aces landing Cliff Lee at the trade deadline, giving them a pitching staff that includes Lee, World Series MVP Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, and either J.A. Happ or Pedro Martinez. Lee has been brilliant the first 6 games with Philly, but only average since. Hamels has been hot of late, while Blanton and Happ have been consistent all season long. Martinez will likely be part of the bullpen and play a long-relief role now that Jamie Moyer is done for the year. The other end of the bullpen is not as strong. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson will need to play with confidence and poise that they have not had for much of the year. If one blows a lead, look for Philly to hit the panic button.
VERDICT: There’s no doubt they have the talent and heart to win again, but do they have the confidence? Bottom line is this, they need the Lidge of old in order to win again, and so far he has not been there.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Albert Pujols is the MVP. Matt Holliday is a great midseason pickup. And no one would have thought that this team would have gotten as much out of players like Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, and Skip Schumaker as they did. The lineup packs a punch in the middle with Pujols, Holliday, and Ryan Ludwick. But the main concern has to be that the rest of the order delivers in crucial situations. Rasmus, Ryan, and Schumaker have for most of the year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they run cold in the postseason. Meanwhile players like Rick Ankiel and Mark DeRosa must live up to their expectations in order for the Cardinals to score enough to win it all. Finally, with the exception of Pujols, the most reliable player on this team has been catcher Yadier Molina, who not only has had an All-Star season, but is the hardest catcher to run on in the playoffs.
There is no better one-two punch in the playoffs than the two veterans that the Cards are throwing out. Cy Young candidates Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright lead the rotation that also boasts underated Joel Pineiro and veterans John Smoltz/Kyle Lohse. In the pen, no one has been more of a surprise than Ryan Franklin, but let’s see how he does in pressure situations in the postseason.
VERDICT: El Hombre can only take them so far. If it’s a one-man show, the show will last less than a week. If they get contributions from their entire lineup, however, and their pitching lives up to their names, then watch out.
AL
BOSTON RED SOX
They may have stumbled into the postseason, but if you think that means an early exit for the Sawks, think again. Offensively they have not been as powerful as in years past, but they’re still pretty damn good. Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, and newcomer Victor Martinez have all had monster years and David Ortiz has looked like the pitcher’s nightmare he once was since the All-Star break. What will be key in the offensive area for the Red Sox are the bats of Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia. Ellsbury is batting .322 since returning to the leadoff role and getting him on and getting him over are essential to beating teams with power hitters up-and-down their lineups. The Sox seem to always have depth and this holds true again this year, with Nick Green and Jed Lowrie both returning from injury, and Rocco Baldelli a capable outfield option.
The rotation is a formidable one, but is not in the healthiest of states. John Lester was hit with a line drive on September 25th but appears to be fine from it, pitching 6 1/3 scoreless innings in his last outing. Past playoff hero Josh Beckett is recovering from back spasms, while game 3 starter Clay Buchholz was on a good stretch before struggling mightily in his last outing. Daisuke Matsuzaka will most likely complete the rotation. The real strength of the pitching however is the bullpen, where Boston has more depth than the Patriots have white scrappy wide receivers. Jonathon Papelbon has a 1.64 ERA since August 1st, but other than him, the Sawks have struggled in the second half of the season, boasting just a 4.30 ERA since the break.
VERDICT: I was all set to pick the Red Sox to win it all because everything looked like it was going their way and they were getting hot at the right time. But they have struggled over the past few weeks, and in the playoffs it really matters who is hot NOW. That being said, they can light it up at a moment’s notice.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM
Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu cannot be acknowledged enough for the way they’ve played this season. The Halos have an offense that can flat out hit from top to bottom, and at one time every starter was batting .300+ at the same time. The team is loaded with players that are fundamentally sound, too, including the infield of Chone Figgins, Maicer Izturis, Howie Kendrick, and Kendry Morales. Power guys such as Juan Rivera and Vladimir Guerrero are always tough outs too. Key bench players include Erick Aybar and Gary Matthews Jr. Finally there may not be a better hitting catcher (not named Mauer) in the playoffs than Mike Napoli. The Angels have had 10 players with 100 hits this season.
The rotation is stacked as well. John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir (while an Angel), and John Saunders have all pitched well this year. And veteran Ervin Santana and 9-1 Matt Palmer don’t even make the starting rotation! Also, Brian Fuentes has done an admirable job in the closer role filling the shoes of Francisco Rodriguez.
VERDICT: It’s hard to call them a sleeper because they’ve done so well all season and finished with the second best record, but that’s essentially what they have become. And I don’t think they care one bit.
MINNESOTA TWINS
They made a great comeback in winning the AL Central, even though it took them 163 games. The Twins finished 4th in runs scored, even without slugger Justin Morneau in the final month. MVP candidate Joe Mauer may have had his best season as a pro, but he actually isn’t alone. Sluggers Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young have all been key for the Twins in their comeback run, while plate setters Denard Span and Orlando Cabrera have been solid all season. The question will be can people at the bottom of the order produce against the good pitching that they’ll face in the postseason, and the answer will most likely be no.
Their rotation is not what they want it to be, but they’ll take it as long as they’re in. Scott Baker has been their best pitcher, but don’t expect to see him until game 3 or even game 4. Carl Pavano has had a resurgence in the Twin Cities, but he won’t be able to go until likely game 2. That leaves the game 1 duties to rookie Brian Duensing who went 5-2 this season, but was pounded in his only appearance (a relief one) against first round opponent New York Yankees. Joe Nathan has been the All-Star he has always been.
VERDICT: They really have nothing to lose. Which is good, because they will probably lose that nothing.
NEW YORK YANKEES
You like them. Someone in your family likes them. That kid who sits next to you likes them. The kid next to him is wearing a hat of them but can’t name anyone other than Jeter and A-Rod. LeBron James likes them… And why not? They’re f***in good. And the reason this year? The lineup they bought assembled is the best in the league. As usual though, it starts with Derek Jeter, who has put together an MVP type season and one of his best seasons in a long time. Key addition Mark Teixeira has lived up to everything that he was brought in to be (offensively and defensively), while players like Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera, and Robinson Cano have overachieved all year. Alex Rodriguez is always a threat to stink it up in the postseason, but with the season he’s had so far, that might actually not be the case. Jorge Posada is the definition of consistency, and Johnny Damon has been huge for them.
Ace CC Sabbathia has been excellent and AJ Burnett averaged nine strikeouts per start, both coming via free agency. But the real key has been Andy Pettitte’s surprising consistency, and he’s showing no signs of being the weak link some experts thought he might be. Joba Chamberlain will likely complete the rotation that, if it is the weak point, is not very weak. The bullpen has stars, including future Hall of Fame closer Mariano Rivera, and Phil Hughes out of the witness protection program.
VERDICT: They have the best record in baseball and have a lineup that can drop a crooked number in any inning at any time, but won’t that just make a postseason exit all the more disappointing and inexcusable?
PREDICTIONS:
NLDS:
PHILLIES vs. ROCKIES – the NL team of last year against the NL team of two years ago. The Rockies are the sort of team that has pestered the Phils all year (the team that plays small ball and won’t go away) but the Phils bats and starting pitching carries them into the next round. Phillies avenge a sweep from two years ago with a near sweep of their own. PHILS IN 4: MVP – Jayson Werth
DODGERS vs. CARDINALS – I actually struggled with this series the most. But in the end, the Cards’ pitching in a short series is just too tempting to not go with. CARDINALS IN 4: MVP – Albert Pujols
NLCS:
PHILLIES vs. CARDINALS – Even as a neutral fan, admit it. You want to see Brad Lidge vs. Albert Pujols. And what else could restore Lidge’s confidence than getting Pujols to ground out to end a 1 run game? Nothing. PHILS IN 7: MVP – Cole Hamels
ALDS:
ANGELS vs. RED SOX – I know, I know, the Red Sox have the Angels’ number. The rally monkey is passed its prime. But everything is telling me that this is the year that the Halos knock down the Green Monster. Figuratively. Get it? I’m funny… right? ANGELS IN 5: MVP – Torii Hunter
YANKEES vs. TWINS – The Twins were up late last night drinking champagne and now have a big test today. Unfortunately, I know first-hand that this is not a good recipe for success. I’ll give them one though because maybe one of the tests is given by Ronnie Gunnerson. YANKEES IN 4: MVP – Derek Jeter
ALCS:
YANKEES vs. ANGELS – Here’s why I’m hesitant to pick the Angels. What if they get nothing out of their starting pitching. Everybody in the rotation is solid, but no one is GREAT. And against the Yankees, you have to be great to shut down that lineup. If they put up a crooked number, it’s hard to small-ball your way out of it. But here’s why I’m hesitant to pick the Yankees. What if they give up a few runs early to the Angels and everyone tries to be the hero. And when that happens, the hole just keeps getting bigger (as is usually the case when you’re behind the Angels). When in doubt, pick what’s more consistent. And I happen to trust the Halo’s lineup slightly over the Yankees pitching. ANGELS IN 6: MVP – CHONE FIGGINS
WORLD SERIES – These teams have faced each other last year during the regular season (Angels swept the 3 game series). But there’s really no way to think that will be a justification for how this series goes. Structurally, the Phillies are built in the same image as the Yankees (minus, um, the closer) in that they have a deep lineup where any player can go yard as easy as he can hang a zero. Kazmir has faced the Phils last year in the World Series and had the best WHIP of any of the Rays’ starters. The Angel’s are essentially a NL team in the AL and the Phillies have the best AL lineup of any NL team. None of this really means anything. Because most postseason games come down to bullpens, namely the closer. And I worry about Lidge the same amount I liked him last year. Meanwhile Fuentes has the most saves this year. ANGELS IN 6: MVP – TORII HUNTER
AWARDS:
AL MVP – Joe Mauer
AL ROTY – Rick Porcello
AL Cy Young – Zack Grienke
Al Manager of the Year – Ron Washington
NL MVP – Albert Pujols
NL ROTY – Chris Coglhan
NL Cy Young – Tim Lincecum
NL Manager of the Year – Jim Tracy
