Saturday, September 8, 2012

NFL Preview and Week One Handicapper




Here we go, the weekend we’ve been waiting for since Tom Brady’s hail mary pass fell incomplete and the clock struck zero in Super Bowl XLVI. Before we take a look at my picks for this week, here is a brief look at how I see the standings this season. You will notice two themes probably. A “changing of the guard” in the NFC, while “more of the same” in the AFC.



AFC


East

1. Patriots (12-4)
The Patriots have improved their defense a little (which wasn’t that hard to do), and while they have an easy schedule as usual, it’s really only easy in the middle weeks. The beginning and end are pretty tough, though ending with Jacksonville and Miami is a nice Christmas present.

2. Bills (8-8)
The Bills begin and end the year with the Jets. So Sanchez gets to face the Bills when Ryan Fitzpatrick is good for the first few weeks, and Tebow gets to face him when Fitzpatrick is back to his normal awful self. Score another one for God!

3. Jets (7-9)
I don’t think the Jets will be as bad as a lot of people are predicting. The offense has potential to improve with Tony Sparano, and the defense is still going to be stout. I do like how most of their four (four!) primetime games are in the latter half of the season…it’s as if the NFL expects the Jets to be a different team later in the year or something!

4. Dolphins (7-9)
I can’t find the link anymore, but about 40 minutes into episode one of Hard Knocks, Chad Johnson says “I’m gonna get arrested” and everyone laughs. Go back and watch it.


North

1. Ravens (11-5)
A very rough schedule, but they should be able to come out on top in the division for a second straight year. However, could very well start the year 1-2 or even 0-3, and now since I live in Baltimore I will get to hear the panic on a daily basis on the way to work. Great.

2. Steelers (10-6)*
Offensive line woes were the problem last season, and they seem to have addressed them in the offseason/draft. I still think the Steelers are one of the top 4 teams in the AFC.

3. Bengals (8-8)
The only playoff team I don’t have returning in the AFC this season, but they should get out to a fast start before their bye week. November and December are brutal however.

4. Browns (4-12)
The Cleveland Browns’ starting quarterback was once traded for this man.


South

1. Texans (11-5)
I love their formula to win football games. So balanced on offense, so good on defense.  The problem is, something along the lines goes wrong during the season (usually an injury to AJ or Schaub) and their whole formula goes out the window. They have the best strategy for winning football games, the problem is they can’t adapt. That said, I have them as my Super Bowl team in the AFC.

2. Titans (8-8)
I think Jake Locker is going to be good someday, so I was happy to see him win the job in the preseason. I also have Chris Johnson in two of my fantasy leagues (not sure how) so hopefully that works out for me.

3. Colts (6-10)
Thanks for Peyton.

4. Jaguars (6-10)
I think the offense should improve from last year, but not enough to make a dent in the division. The defense has always been strong, and I’m hoping Jack Del Rio brings that effect over to the Broncos. (Oh sorry, was that two in a row where I spoke as a Bronco fanboy? Sorry, won’t happen again.)


West

1. Broncos (10-6)
We got Peyton Effing Manning!  I worry he will be as good as he was, but even if it’s just 90% that should be an upgrade. Hell, 50% would have been in upgrade. I’m just hoping a. he stays healthy and b. he “knows how to win” as much as the previous QB.

2. Chiefs (9-7)*
The dark horse of the division. The Chiefs scare me.  They had a ton of injuries last year, that most people forget how good they were in 2010.  Also, yes I picked two teams out of the AFC west to make the playoffs. This division is as good as it’s been in awhile.

3. Chargers (9-7)
Objectively: #FireNorv.   As a Broncos fan: #FourMoreYears!

4. Raiders (7-9)
I’m just thinking how badly Jason Campbell got screwed when he got injured and they brought in Carson Palmer, who was supposedly better according to the experts (or at least the people in charge of the Raiders) but is not.  And now he’s backing up Jay Cutler. And a quick google search tells me that I’m not the only one who thinks so.


NFC

East

1. Eagles (11-5)
The Dream Team/Dynasty was starting to look very strong in the last four games of the season, and I think a lot of people are forgetting how good they have the potential to be. 

2. Giants (9-7)
I have to admit, I did not see them losing on Wednesday and I know this isn’t really fair, but I had them right on the border as a wild card team and I think that could be enough to not make it.  But who knows, 9-7 sometimes wins divisions, amirite?

3. Cowboys (9-7)
The Cowboys’ opening game victory has them one step closer to glory.

4. Redskins (7-9)
Everyone’s hoping RGIII is the next Cam Newton, and he probably has to be to warrant giving away all those picks for him. That being said, Griffin is going to be a problem for the Ware’s, JPP’s, Tuck’s and Cole’s of the division.


North

1. Packers (12-4)
The Packers probably don’t care where they are in the playoffs just as long as they are in, seeing as they won a Super Bowl as the 6 seed, and went one and done last year losing just one game all season.  That being said, over more debate than probably needed, I took them first in the division, mostly because I trust Rodgers more than Stafford to stay healthy.

2. Lions (11-5)*
I think this team is going to be good for awhile, but they really need to get better defensively. The Packers/Patriots’ defenses aren’t good either, but they can still make plays and create turnovers. In order for the Lions to steal the division (which I think they can do) they need to assert themselves on defense.

3. Bears (8-8)
Cutler and Marshall back together again! Yay!

4. Vikings (5-11)
Did you know Adrian Peterson was born in Palestine?!? Well, Palestine, Texas, but still..thought any Jewish NFL fans would still like to hear.


South

1. Panthers (11-5)
Their defense was garbage last year, and gave away games making their record look worse than it should have been. This year I expect them to have better luck, and improve defensively. Oh, and get ready for Cam year 2.

2. Saints (9-7)
I cannot see how losing your coach for a year, then having two different interim coaches during the year can be good for Drew Brees and the Saints offense.  If they come anywhere close to putting up numbers from last year, I will be impressed.

3. Falcons (9-7)
I have them missing the playoffs, which is unfortunate because I wanted another video from this guy.

4. Buccaneers (7-9)
Should steal a few games from the other three teams in the division and probably will be one of the main reasons that only one team comes out of the division this year.


West

1. Seahawks (10-6)
Love what they did in the offseason and getting Russell Wilson in the draft.  If Marshawn Lynch can keep up his resurgent 2011, I feel pretty good about the Seahawks winning the west.

2. 49ers (10-6)*
I didn’t have them making the playoffs before Wednesday, but because I’m a great writer and didn’t get my preview out before the season actually started, I’m adjusting the standings accordingly.

3. Rams (5-11)
I’m not sure (and don’t feel like looking it up, but I think I may have picked them to win the division last year. Yikes.

4. Cardinals (4-12)
They did not look good at all this preseason. I feel bad for Larry Fitzgerald to be stuck in this mess, as Skelton and Kolb are just awful. They should probably just see if they can find any hidden talents. (Link possibly NSFW, came across it as I was writing and figured I’d share it.)



Oh I guess you want playoff picks, huh?


NFC Championship game: Packers over Eagles
AFC Championship game: Texans over Ravens

Super Bowl Champions: Texans
 


Week One picks:
Colts +10.5
Eagles -8.5
Lions -8.5
Patriots -6.5
Chiefs +0.5 (and to win)
Vikings -1.5
Saints -9.5
Bills +3.5
Texans -7.5
Packers -6.5
Seahawks +1.5 (and to win)
Panthers -2.5
Broncos -1.5
Ravens -6.5
Raiders +1.5 (and to win)





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