Have no fear ladies and gents. Even with 1.5 jobs, grad school, planning a road trip, going to concerts even though I can't really afford them, and drunk-texting people I shouldn't -- I still will find time this NFL season to conduct my weekly picks, both straight up (which anyone can do) and against the spread (in case you like losing money). That is dedication.
First, let's take a look at the big picture: Here are my 12 playoff teams for the 2014 season, as usual in .gif form (with one exception):
AFC
East winner:
North winner:
South winner:
West winner:
Wildcards:
NFC
East winner:
North winner:
South winner:
West winner:
Wildcards:
There's no point of picking a Super Bowl winner quite yet. I'll do that when the playoffs start.
So without further ado, here are my Week One picks:
(Note: I'm getting my spreads from ESPN's pigskin pick'em since that is where I am picking/keeping track of them. This is also nice because usually they don't change their spreads if something happens mid-week like someone getting injured or suspended or something.)
Last season straight up: 0-0
Last season vs. spread: 0-0
Actually I have no idea if that's accurate, but I can't find my picks from last year, so let's just go with that.
Packers at Seahawks (-5.5)
Everyone loves the first night of the NFL season, but rarely has this first game been that good (unless you're into Manning throwing 7 touchdowns on the Ravens...which...how could you not be?). I think the Packers defense will be their undoing this year. They should be able to score, but the Seattle offense gets to go against a questionable secondary where the Pack has to face the PED-fueled Seahawks secondary (and the 12th man OMG!)
Pick: Seahawks
Saints at Falcons (-1.5) ---I highly doubt this is the actual line, but it's what they have on ESPN
Do these teams start every season against each other? Certainly seems like it. I like the Saints a lot this year, maybe to even come out of the NFC -- of course this would require them to get the #1 seed (which they can do) because I am not picking them outdoors in January. Really looking forward to watching Julio Jones play football again this year, because we all need more of this in our lives.
Pick: Saints (and to win)
Bills at Bears (-6.5)
I think the Bills might be the worst team in the NFL, and you just saw that I think the Bears win their division. So how do you think I'm picking this game?
Pick: Bears
Bengals at Ravens (-2.5)
I have no confidence in this division. It always feels like three slightly above average teams and then the Browns. I think the Bengals are the best of the bunch again, but their inevitable fall will happen in the playoffs when Andy Dalton does something stupid. Meanwhile, I'll say it, I don't want the Ravens in the playoffs. Weird sh*t happens. (I bet you know where that link goes)
Pick: Bengals (and to win)
Browns at Steelers (-5.5)
I'm really hoping I got a Ravens fan thinking they were going to watch Rahim Moore get burnt by Jacoby Jones and instead watched the worst playoff kick since Scott Norwood. Probably not because no one will likely read this. But whatever. I guess that means I don't really need to talk about this game. Anyway, are the Steelers actually going to be good this year? They have not been for awhile. Have they gotten Ben any linemen this year?
Pick: Steelers
Titans at Chiefs (-6.5)
Man the Chiefs are going to regress this season. It's almost too obvious. Incredibly lucky last season. Have to play the NFC West this season. Broncos twice. Chargers twice. Not good. Take the Titans here, maybe to win outright if you're frisky.
Pick: Titans (--explaining this once---this means straight-up: Chiefs, but Titans with the spread..if I say "and to win" after, then I'd be picking the Titans for both pools)
Raiders at Jets (-6.5)
The Jets have this easy game to start and then the early-season schedule from hell: at GB, vs CHI, vs DET, at SD, then vs DEN and at NE four days after it! Here Jets, play the two best teams in your conference in a span of four days. It's like a beheading as opposed to cancer I suppose. Note: fully aware the Jets at 1-4 will now beat the Broncos before getting destroyed 52-10 to New England.
Pick: Jets
Vikings at Rams (-6.5)
Jeez, Idk if they made this spread before or after the Bradford injury, but wow, yeah let me in on that Shaun Hill giving a touchdown pick.
Pick: Vikings (and to win)
Patriots at Dolphins (+3.5)
I'm not sure if the Dolphins are going to be better this year. I mean, I think they will BE a better team, but they finished 8-8 last year and feel like an 8-8 team again this year. Meanwhile, I like what NE did defensively, and they are simply a different and way better team when Gronk is playing. Of course, it's likely that will not be the case all season.
Pick: Patriots
Jaguars at Eagles (-11.5)
Man I want to see Bortles start. I've seen enough of Chad Henne. C'mon Jags. Get it together. Also, I feel like the Eagles have this division by default. Is there a second good team in the NFC East? The Cowboys have no defense. The Redskins won't have a healthy QB by week 3, and have a questionable defense of their own. The Giants have no running game, and Eli Manning, who sucks for three years and then wins a Super Bowl the fourth...luckily for humankind we're still on the third year out of that cycle of four.
Pick: Jaguars
Washington's Professional Football Team at Texans (-2.5)
Fun fact: these teams combined for 5 wins last season, which was less than Bills. The Jaguars lost thier first 8 games and won more than either of these teams, beating the Texans for of those wins. God these teams sucked last year. Fortunately for them, one of them added Clowney to a D-Line that already featured the best defensive player in the game, and the other one only face 4 playoff teams from last season.
Pick: Texans
49ers at Cowboys (+4.5)
If this we're the 90s this would be a fantastic game. It, however, is not the nineties. However, here is a plug for the 90s Playlist my roommates and I created for our 90s party that if you're reading this you probably went to: 1990's Party Playlist.
Pick: Cowboys (and to win)
Panthers at Bucs (+1.5)
Really, this and the above game are the only late afternoon games? This is week one! Do you know how often the RedZone channel will be doing nothing from 4:30-8 p.m.? Scott Hansen will update us at least 20 times that Lesean McCoy rushed for 180 yards and 3 TDs against the Jaguars, all but solidifying your week one loss in fantasy -- Unless you have McCoy, in which case he'll show the play he got injured for the season on 10 times.
Pick: Bucs (and to win)
Colts at Broncos (-6.5)
Luck is going to be fantastic this season. The bad news is, he has to be. Shame for the Colts, if they actually improved in the offseason, this would be the year to make a run at the Super Bowl, with Denver getting the hard schedule (NFC West + AFC East + Colts/Bengals), Patriots voluntarily letting linemen go and the inevitable Gronk injury (and really still no great receivers other than him), and the AFC North not scaring anybody. Don't overlook the Welker suspension here or that they lost to Indy last year; Broncos will win this one and cover.
Pick: Broncos
Giants at Lions (-4.5)
Matt Stafford - the QB who puts up good numbers but doesn't win. Eli Manning - the QB who doesn't put up good numbers but somehow has two Super Bowl rings. Get your popcorn ready.
Pick: Lions
Chargers at Cardinals (-3.5)
This Chargers team kind of scares me. They have a much easier first few games than Denver does (they could be 5-1 before the meeting in Denver), I like their additions on defense plus Ingram returning from injury, and I think Mike McCoy is going to be a very good head coach. Meanwhile, the Cardinals still have Carson Palmer and face the 49ers and Seahawks twice each. That last sentence is why I don't have them in the playoffs.
Pick: Chargers (and to win)
Thanks for reading this everyone. I'm glad to be back writing for all of you. Enjoy week one.
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