AFC Preview 2013

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NFC Preview 2013 (Part 2)

Part 2 with Breaking Bad and MTV's Challenge analysis Tweet

NFC Preview 2013 (Part 1)

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Super Bowl XLVII Preview and 2012 Season in Review

Colin Kaepernick and the Niners are one win away from giving the San Fran their sixth Super Bowl Championship.

It always pains me a little the moment the Super Bowl ends and it dawns on me that there will not be football again for a long time. It’s like the last chorus in the encore of a band that doesn’t tour all the time, or the last bite from a meal you got from a restaurant that’s about to shutdown. 

And while you would not realize it if you solely got your football updates from this blog (hooray for my second post on the NFL this season! my first being a preview article! -- update: the Panthers did NOT make the playoffs like I predicted), this season, which was fantastic, is about to come to an end.

Sure, it will culminate with the San Francisco 49ers facing the Baltimore Ravens in New Orleans (is it just me, or do their head coaches look kind of alike?) but this season was not without its share of noteworthy storylines from start to finish. So before I cover the game tonight, let’s look back at the 2012-13 season.

The 2012 rookie class was okay, I guess.

New Kids on the Block

Last night it was announced among many other things that Robert Griffin III won the NFL Rookie of the Year award. While I personally believe that Russell Wilson had a better season, you simply could not go wrong in handing the award to Griffin, Wilson, or Indianapolis QB, Andrew Luck. The seasons that each of the three of them had were tremendous, and the 2012 draft class of QB’s may go down as the best since 1983 when it is all said and done.

Griffin, who won the award, was by far the most exciting player of the three to watch. What sets him apart from the typical mobile quarterback is how accurate he was this season. Griffin finished with a 65.6 completion percentage and a 20-5 touchdown-interception ratio. His signature performance happened on October 14, when he led the Redskins to a 38-26 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, throwing for a touchdown and running for 138 yards, breaking off a game-clinching 76-yard touchdown run in the process. He also led his team to six straight wins to finish the season to give the Redskins the NFC East title.

Luck, the heir apparent to Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, threw for the most yards of the three, throwing for 4374 and 23 touchdowns. He also led the Colts to an 11-5 record one year after the Colts finished with just 2 wins, doing so with Vick Ballard as his leading rusher and T.Y. Hilton as his leading receiver. 

Wilson, who was selected in the third round, threw for the most touchdowns of the three of them with 26 and just 10 interceptions. He led the Seahawks to an 11-5 record and a wild card playoff birth. He finished the season only throwing 2 picks in his last 8 games, and led his team to score 150 points in a three-game period. All three had tremendous seasons and I’m excited to see what each can do next season and throughout their respective careers.

Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson both had MVP type seasons.

Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson Comebacks

One had four neck surgeries and threw for over 4600 yards and 37 touchdowns, and the other finished nine yards short of the single season rushing record after tearing his ACL last December. Peyton Manning won Comeback Player of the Year, and Adrian Peterson won Offensive Player of the Year and the Most Valuable Player award. It is truly incredible how both players had such amazing seasons after their respective injuries. 

Manning of course came over to Denver from Indianapolis. He had a fantastic second half of the season and led his team to 11 straight wins and the best record in the AFC. Doctors told him that he would be smarter if he just retired. Adrian Peterson not only had his best season as a pro, but did so only missing one game after tearing his ACL, many wondering if he would ever be his same dominant self. 

Unfortunately, this happened.

The Replacement Refs 

If you have the pleasure of following me on Twitter at @AdamRomo14 (or just been around me during the first half of the season), you know that I think Roger Goodell completely effed up the first half of the season by not getting a deal done with the regular refs. I get that the regular refs are not perfect, but the game is supposed to be about the players. The game is about the best athletes displaying their talents against each other. The rest of the factors affecting a game should be as minimal as possible. That especially means the referees. 

Fans want to watch players, not refs. So if there is a way to get the calls as right as often as possible, as a commissioner you need to do everything within your power to get that to happen. This of course was highlighted in the fiasco between Green Bay and Seattle on Monday Night Football, when Golden Tate was credited with a TD catch that was actually an interception. Luckily, the incident faced enough backlash that a deal had to be reached, and the rest of the season saw the regular referees back in action. While not perfect, the people who best knew what they were doing were in place to sort out what goes on during a game, and that boosted the credibility of the game significantly.

I will likely see this image in my head until the 2013 season starts.

Super Bowl Prediction

I haven’t done that great picking games this postseason. I’ve gotten one game correct straight up from the Divisional round on (sorry Houston, even I knew you were no match for New England). Of course, against the spread I got both Championship games right, if you live in Nevada and you’re in to that whole gambling thing.

To start, let me say that San Francisco is such a different type of team than the Ravens have faced this postseason. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the best quarterbacks in the game, but at their ages, once you get enough pressure on them, the play is over. Neither are going to scramble and turn the play into a positive gain; it’s going to be an incompletion, sack, or worse. 

Colin Kaepernick is different. He can make something out of nothing, and capitalize when you do give him something. His ability to make big plays down the field has been an area of concern when Jim Harbaugh made the switch to him midseason, but he has answered the call, especially in the Niners last two playoff games.

But the Ravens can make big plays downfield too. Torrey Smith was great in the Denver game, and Anquan Boldin has quietly been the Ravens best offensive player this postseason, almost single-handedly beating the Colts and converting several key third downs in the Broncos and Patriots games. 

While I generally think that momentum is overrated, especially in the playoffs, this Ravens team seems to fit the mold that has a belief that they are going to win no matter what the odds are, and also that nobody else thinks that they can win the game. That being said, the 49ers defense had an off game against the Falcons and still managed to hold Atlanta scoreless in the second half. What are the odds that they have two off games in a row?

Niners cornerbacks have to play better than they did in the NFC Championship if they want to win. Smith and Boldin will give them all they can handle.

Super Bowls, for whatever reason, are usually hard to predict to a T. They always differ than whatever conventional logic seems to say. Maybe it’s the fact that I haven’t really thought either team has played that well this season, maybe it’s the close spread, or maybe it’s the pregame mimosas, but I have really struggled with this pick all week. I think the Niners are the better team, but I think that the Ravens have come up with a system of throws that Joe Flacco is comfortable with, including deep balls to Smith sprinkled in between handoffs to Rice and throws across the middle to the tight ends and Boldin. When it’s all said and done I actually trust Flacco right now and whatever is the driving force behind is recent play more than I do a first year starting quarterback, even if he is as dynamic as Kaepernick. The pick is Ravens 30, Niners 26. But, maybe that’s just because I’m looking forward to lighting shit on fire tonight in Federal Hill. Oh well.

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MLB Postseason Preview: How Everybody's Postseason Will End

 

Normally I do a detailed preview of who I think is going to win in the postseason and analyze each team’s strengths and weaknesses and examine what to look forward to in each matchup. But because, as a Phillies fan, I really think baseball kinda sucked this year, I am in a vengeful mood. Thus, not at all maliciously, I will just preview how each team’s season will end. This should be fun, I can’t wait.

Texas Rangers – Normally they dominate the American League in the postseason. Then they get to the World Series and lose to an average at best National League team (that somehow makes it past the top teams in the NL, but enough about that). But I can’t really explain the Orioles’ success this year, so let’s just say they’re average at best too. Needless to say, that spells doom for the Rangers, as they lose in the opening game, despite Yuuuuuuuuuu striking out 13.

Atlanta Braves – Last year they had a historical September collapse and missed the postseason by one game to the St. Louis Cardinals. This year, they can get their revenge by playing them in a one-game playoff. But once again, the Cards get the better of them and win in a close, 2-1 game in extra innings. What’s worse, the game is 1-1 before Craig Kimbrel comes in and gives up a go-ahead rbi-double to David Freese. The pitcher has a slightly better time than last time his team was eliminated. Also, Chipper Jones cries.

Detroit Tigers – Verlander has a strong showing in game 1. Miguel Cabrera hits 3 homers in the first two games.  And Papa Grande closes the door on both save opportunities. Everything looks good. Until rumor starts leaking that Mike Trout is going to win the MVP award. Then Cabrera gets pissed, and he starts hitting the sauce. Suddenly he can’t hit the ocean if he fell out of a boat. Prince Fielder, without his slugging third baseman in front of him, also goes cold (luckily for all of us who don’t like earthquakes, he does not fall out of a boat). They end up losing in round one after being up 2-0 in the series.

Washington Nationals – In a close first round matchup, the Nationals go back and forth and tie the series to make it 2-2. But then on the day of game 5, the equipment manager messes up and prints “Natinals” on the teams jerseys again. These uniforms cause the DC squad to go back to their days of playing like crap (not that that was all that long ago), and they lose in the final game 7-1. When asked what kind of expression he felt best described this loss, Bryce Harper responds “That’s a frown question, bro.” (Sorry)

San Francisco Giants – Posey has a tremendous series, Cain pitches two extraordinary games, Lincecum goes back to the way he used to pitch when he was getting really high instead of just a little high, and the Giants go up 4-2 in a pivotal game 5 in the first round. Then, all of a sudden, it gets really humid. Suddenly, Brian Wilson’s “beard” falls off, and soon the rest of the bullpen’s “beards” fall off as well. Confused, and unable to pitch under normal conditions, the bullpen blows the lead and the Giants lose. Just for good measure, the Reds somehow sign Scott Cousins to freak the sh*t out of Posey all series.

Baltimore Orioles – After making it past the wild-card game, the O’s play the Yankees in the next round. Camden Yards is rocking during the first two games, and the Orioles go up 1-0 in the series. They then take the second game into extra innings, where they have an incredible record and feel confident about the outcome of this game too. But in the 13^th inning, Derek Jeter hits a fly ball to right-center and goes over the fence, barely. They take the lead, but the umps review it. On replay, it appears as though it should be called a ground-rule double, but the umps declare it a home-run. The crowd then starts chanting “bullsh*t” in unison so loudly that it can be heard clearly not only on TV, but also outside my window. Talk radio the next morning is filled with crazy people that say the refs screwed us over and that there should have been a flag and Showalter should have challenged the call. They go on to lose the next two games because they are the Orioles.

St. Louis Cardinals – After taking the wild-card game and the first round, many believe that the team that barely made it last year could have another miraculous run in October again. But they are down 3-2 in the series in a crucial Game 6. Game tied at 4, manager Mike Matheny makes a pitching change and asks for Jason Motte. Surprisingly, he actually gets Jason Motte and not Lance Lynn instead. Motte goes on to give up a two-run homer and seal the Redbirds’ fate. Ironically had Lance Lynn come in, he would have retired the batters in order.

Oakland A’s – The A’s march into the ALCS to everyone’s surprise with everyone praising Billy Beane for getting the most out of players like Brandon Moss and Coco Crisp and Jemille Weeks etc. The A’s are tied in the series 2-2 and Game 5 is a slugfest that is going into extra innings, 9-9. As the game carries on, the Fox broadcasters need time to fill, so they start panning around the Oakland stadium looking for famous people. They happen to come across JaMarcus Russell, former Oakland Raider quarterback and number one overall pick, in the first few rows, who has a lot of free time because he got cut from the Oakland Raiders. I can’t stress enough that he was picked with the first overall pick and got cut by the Oakland Raiders. His presence alone causes all Oakland players to start sucking and the A’s lose miserably. I hate the Raiders.

New York Yankees – After making it back to the World Series, the Yankees look like they are ready to reclaim the throne. Of course, getting to the Fall Classic was what Yankees fans expect anyway, especially if you told them before the season that in the AL playoffs you will have to face Baltimore and Oakland. But anyway, they are locked in a close series with the Cincinnati Reds. They are trailing the series 2-1, and were losing game four by one run most of the game. Still down one, top of the eighth with two outs, they are facing the Reds setup man, with the obvious thought of having to get a run off of Aroldis Chapman in the ninth looming. Suddenly, the most unlikely Yankee (let’s say…Eduardo Nunez…I don’t know why) hits a solo home run to tie the game! Now all they need to do is hold on and score some runs in the ninth. But with one out Rafael Soriano gives up a walk to Scott Rolen. For some reason, even though he is old and not that fast, Rolen steals second base during the next at-bat, and because no one is covering third, he KEEPS RUNNING to third base and makes it. Go ahead run is now 90 feet away and then all hell breaks loose and the Reds win 7-4, and the old veteran is praised as a genius. Reds go on to win in six, and somewhere (as if you couldn’t pick up on the similarities by now) Brad Lidge strokes a Cheshire cat in his lap and nods his head approvingly.

Cincinnati Reds –After winning the World Series, the Reds begin to celebrate. When the World Series trophy gets passed around, Aroldis Chapman lifts it up in jubilation. But at that moment, his throwing arm falls off from exhaustion because he is managed by Dusty Baker.

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NFL Preview and Week One Handicapper

Here we go, the weekend we’ve been waiting for since Tom Brady’s hail mary pass fell incomplete and the clock struck zero in Super Bowl XLVI. Before we take a look at my picks for this week, here is a brief look at how I see the standings this season. You will notice two themes probably. A “changing of the guard” in the NFC, while “more of the same” in the AFC.

AFC

East

1. Patriots (12-4)

The Patriots have improved their defense a little (which wasn’t that hard to do), and while they have an easy schedule as usual, it’s really only easy in the middle weeks. The beginning and end are pretty tough, though ending with Jacksonville and Miami is a nice Christmas present.

2. Bills (8-8)

The Bills begin and end the year with the Jets. So Sanchez gets to face the Bills when Ryan Fitzpatrick is good for the first few weeks, and Tebow gets to face him when Fitzpatrick is back to his normal awful self. Score another one for God!

3. Jets (7-9)

I don’t think the Jets will be as bad as a lot of people are predicting. The offense has potential to improve with Tony Sparano, and the defense is still going to be stout. I do like how most of their four (four!) primetime games are in the latter half of the season…it’s as if the NFL expects the Jets to be a different team later in the year or something!

4. Dolphins (7-9)

I can’t find the link anymore, but about 40 minutes into episode one of Hard Knocks, Chad Johnson says “I’m gonna get arrested” and everyone laughs. Go back and watch it.

North

1. Ravens (11-5)

A very rough schedule, but they should be able to come out on top in the division for a second straight year. However, could very well start the year 1-2 or even 0-3, and now since I live in Baltimore I will get to hear the panic on a daily basis on the way to work. Great.

2. Steelers (10-6)*

Offensive line woes were the problem last season, and they seem to have addressed them in the offseason/draft. I still think the Steelers are one of the top 4 teams in the AFC.

3. Bengals (8-8)

The only playoff team I don’t have returning in the AFC this season, but they should get out to a fast start before their bye week. November and December are brutal however.

4. Browns (4-12)

The Cleveland Browns’ starting quarterback was once traded for this man.

South

1. Texans (11-5)

I love their formula to win football games. So balanced on offense, so good on defense.  The problem is, something along the lines goes wrong during the season (usually an injury to AJ or Schaub) and their whole formula goes out the window. They have the best strategy for winning football games, the problem is they can’t adapt. That said, I have them as my Super Bowl team in the AFC.

2. Titans (8-8)

I think Jake Locker is going to be good someday, so I was happy to see him win the job in the preseason. I also have Chris Johnson in two of my fantasy leagues (not sure how) so hopefully that works out for me.

3. Colts (6-10)

Thanks for Peyton.

4. Jaguars (6-10)

I think the offense should improve from last year, but not enough to make a dent in the division. The defense has always been strong, and I’m hoping Jack Del Rio brings that effect over to the Broncos. (Oh sorry, was that two in a row where I spoke as a Bronco fanboy? Sorry, won’t happen again.)

West

1. Broncos (10-6)

We got Peyton Effing Manning!  I worry he will be as good as he was, but even if it’s just 90% that should be an upgrade. Hell, 50% would have been in upgrade. I’m just hoping a. he stays healthy and b. he “knows how to win” as much as the previous QB.

2. Chiefs (9-7)*

The dark horse of the division. The Chiefs scare me.  They had a ton of injuries last year, that most people forget how good they were in 2010.  Also, yes I picked two teams out of the AFC west to make the playoffs. This division is as good as it’s been in awhile.

3. Chargers (9-7)

Objectively: #FireNorv.   As a Broncos fan: #FourMoreYears!

4. Raiders (7-9)

I’m just thinking how badly Jason Campbell got screwed when he got injured and they brought in Carson Palmer, who was supposedly better according to the experts (or at least the people in charge of the Raiders) but is not.  And now he’s backing up Jay Cutler. And a quick google search tells me that I’m not the only one who thinks so.

NFC

East

1. Eagles (11-5)

The Dream Team/Dynasty was starting to look very strong in the last four games of the season, and I think a lot of people are forgetting how good they have the potential to be. 

2. Giants (9-7)

I have to admit, I did not see them losing on Wednesday and I know this isn’t really fair, but I had them right on the border as a wild card team and I think that could be enough to not make it.  But who knows, 9-7 sometimes wins divisions, amirite?

3. Cowboys (9-7)

The Cowboys’ opening game victory has them one step closer to glory.

4. Redskins (7-9)

Everyone’s hoping RGIII is the next Cam Newton, and he probably has to be to warrant giving away all those picks for him. That being said, Griffin is going to be a problem for the Ware’s, JPP’s, Tuck’s and Cole’s of the division.

North

1. Packers (12-4)

The Packers probably don’t care where they are in the playoffs just as long as they are in, seeing as they won a Super Bowl as the 6 seed, and went one and done last year losing just one game all season.  That being said, over more debate than probably needed, I took them first in the division, mostly because I trust Rodgers more than Stafford to stay healthy.

2. Lions (11-5)*

I think this team is going to be good for awhile, but they really need to get better defensively. The Packers/Patriots’ defenses aren’t good either, but they can still make plays and create turnovers. In order for the Lions to steal the division (which I think they can do) they need to assert themselves on defense.

3. Bears (8-8)

Cutler and Marshall back together again! Yay!

4. Vikings (5-11)

Did you know Adrian Peterson was born in Palestine?!? Well, Palestine, Texas, but still..thought any Jewish NFL fans would still like to hear.

South

1. Panthers (11-5)

Their defense was garbage last year, and gave away games making their record look worse than it should have been. This year I expect them to have better luck, and improve defensively. Oh, and get ready for Cam year 2.

2. Saints (9-7)

I cannot see how losing your coach for a year, then having two different interim coaches during the year can be good for Drew Brees and the Saints offense.  If they come anywhere close to putting up numbers from last year, I will be impressed.

3. Falcons (9-7)

I have them missing the playoffs, which is unfortunate because I wanted another video from this guy.

4. Buccaneers (7-9)

Should steal a few games from the other three teams in the division and probably will be one of the main reasons that only one team comes out of the division this year.

West

1. Seahawks (10-6)

Love what they did in the offseason and getting Russell Wilson in the draft.  If Marshawn Lynch can keep up his resurgent 2011, I feel pretty good about the Seahawks winning the west.

2. 49ers (10-6)*

I didn’t have them making the playoffs before Wednesday, but because I’m a great writer and didn’t get my preview out before the season actually started, I’m adjusting the standings accordingly.

3. Rams (5-11)

I’m not sure (and don’t feel like looking it up, but I think I may have picked them to win the division last year. Yikes.

4. Cardinals (4-12)

They did not look good at all this preseason. I feel bad for Larry Fitzgerald to be stuck in this mess, as Skelton and Kolb are just awful. They should probably just see if they can find any hidden talents. (Link possibly NSFW, came across it as I was writing and figured I’d share it.)

Oh I guess you want playoff picks, huh?

NFC Championship game: Packers over Eagles

AFC Championship game: Texans over Ravens

Super Bowl Champions: Texans

 

Week One picks:

Colts +10.5

Eagles -8.5

Lions -8.5

Patriots -6.5

Chiefs +0.5 (and to win)

Vikings -1.5

Saints -9.5

Bills +3.5

Texans -7.5

Packers -6.5

Seahawks +1.5 (and to win)

Panthers -2.5

Broncos -1.5

Ravens -6.5

Raiders +1.5 (and to win)

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