Week One 2014 Picks

"Oh dear god. He's posting in his blog again. Is he ok? Should we give him a hug? How terrible is this going to be? Why did I come here? Just because he linked it on his twitter and I'm bored at work I suppose... I don't even like football, why did I click this? Is this going to be funny or just some sports stuff that will go over my head? Is he going to post once and then not again until the playoffs? I see he gave up on those podcasts...FINALLY!"

Have no fear ladies and gents. Even with 1.5 jobs, grad school, planning a road trip, going to concerts even though I can't really afford them, and drunk-texting people I shouldn't -- I still will find time this NFL season to conduct my weekly picks, both straight up (which anyone can do) and against the spread (in case you like losing money). That is dedication.

First, let's take a look at the big picture: Here are my 12 playoff teams for the 2014 season, as usual in .gif form (with one exception):

AFC

East winner:

North winner:

South winner:

West winner:

Wildcards:

NFC

East winner:

North winner:

South winner:

West winner:

Wildcards:

There's no point of picking a Super Bowl winner quite yet. I'll do that when the playoffs start.

So without further ado, here are my Week One picks:

(Note: I'm getting my spreads from ESPN's pigskin pick'em since that is where I am picking/keeping track of them. This is also nice because usually they don't change their spreads if something happens mid-week like someone getting injured or suspended or something.)

Last season straight up: 0-0
Last season vs. spread: 0-0

Actually I have no idea if that's accurate, but I can't find my picks from last year, so let's just go with that.

Packers at Seahawks (-5.5)

Everyone loves the first night of the NFL season, but rarely has this first game been that good (unless you're into Manning throwing 7 touchdowns on the Ravens...which...how could you not be?). I think the Packers defense will be their undoing this year. They should be able to score, but the Seattle offense gets to go against a questionable secondary where the Pack has to face the PED-fueled Seahawks secondary (and the 12th man OMG!)

Pick: Seahawks


Saints at Falcons (-1.5) ---I highly doubt this is the actual line, but it's what they have on ESPN

Do these teams start every season against each other? Certainly seems like it. I like the Saints a lot this year, maybe to even come out of the NFC -- of course this would require them to get the #1 seed (which they can do) because I am not picking them outdoors in January. Really looking forward to watching Julio Jones play football again this year, because we all need more of this in our lives.

Pick: Saints (and to win)


Bills at Bears (-6.5)

I think the Bills might be the worst team in the NFL, and you just saw that I think the Bears win their division. So how do you think I'm picking this game?

Pick: Bears


Bengals at Ravens (-2.5)

I have no confidence in this division. It always feels like three slightly above average teams and then the Browns. I think the Bengals are the best of the bunch again, but their inevitable fall will happen in the playoffs when Andy Dalton does something stupid. Meanwhile, I'll say it, I don't want the Ravens in the playoffs. Weird sh*t happens. (I bet you know where that link goes)

Pick: Bengals (and to win)


Browns at Steelers (-5.5)

I'm really hoping I got a Ravens fan thinking they were going to watch Rahim Moore get burnt by Jacoby Jones and instead watched the worst playoff kick since Scott Norwood. Probably not because no one will likely read this. But whatever. I guess that means I don't really need to talk about this game. Anyway, are the Steelers actually going to be good this year? They have not been for awhile. Have they gotten Ben any linemen this year?

Pick: Steelers


Titans at Chiefs (-6.5)

Man the Chiefs are going to regress this season. It's almost too obvious. Incredibly lucky last season. Have to play the NFC West this season. Broncos twice. Chargers twice. Not good. Take the Titans here, maybe to win outright if you're frisky.

Pick: Titans (--explaining this once---this means straight-up: Chiefs, but Titans with the spread..if I say "and to win" after, then I'd be picking the Titans for both pools)


Raiders at Jets (-6.5)

The Jets have this easy game to start and then the early-season schedule from hell: at GB, vs CHI, vs DET, at SD, then vs DEN and at NE four days after it! Here Jets, play the two best teams in your conference in a span of four days. It's like a beheading as opposed to cancer I suppose. Note: fully aware the Jets at 1-4 will now beat the Broncos before getting destroyed 52-10 to New England.

Pick: Jets


Vikings at Rams (-6.5)

Jeez, Idk if they made this spread before or after the Bradford injury, but wow, yeah let me in on that Shaun Hill giving a touchdown pick.

Pick: Vikings (and to win)


Patriots at Dolphins (+3.5)

I'm not sure if the Dolphins are going to be better this year. I mean, I think they will BE a better team, but they finished 8-8 last year and feel like an 8-8 team again this year. Meanwhile, I like what NE did defensively, and they are simply a different and way better team when Gronk is playing. Of course, it's likely that will not be the case all season.

Pick: Patriots


Jaguars at Eagles (-11.5)

Man I want to see Bortles start. I've seen enough of Chad Henne. C'mon Jags. Get it together. Also, I feel like the Eagles have this division by default. Is there a second good team in the NFC East? The Cowboys have no defense. The Redskins won't have a healthy QB by week 3, and have a questionable defense of their own. The Giants have no running game, and Eli Manning, who sucks for three years and then wins a Super Bowl the fourth...luckily for humankind we're still on the third year out of that cycle of four.

Pick: Jaguars


Washington's Professional Football Team at Texans (-2.5)

Fun fact: these teams combined for 5 wins last season, which was less than Bills. The Jaguars lost thier first 8 games and won more than either of these teams, beating the Texans for of those wins. God these teams sucked last year. Fortunately for them, one of them added Clowney to a D-Line that already featured the best defensive player in the game, and the other one only face 4 playoff teams from last season.

Pick: Texans


49ers at Cowboys (+4.5)

If this we're the 90s this would be a fantastic game. It, however, is not the nineties. However, here is a plug for the 90s Playlist my roommates and I created for our 90s party that if you're reading this you probably went to: 1990's Party Playlist.

Pick: Cowboys (and to win)


Panthers at Bucs (+1.5)

Really, this and the above game are the only late afternoon games? This is week one! Do you know how often the RedZone channel will be doing nothing from 4:30-8 p.m.? Scott Hansen will update us at least 20 times that Lesean McCoy rushed for 180 yards and 3 TDs against the Jaguars, all but solidifying your week one loss in fantasy -- Unless you have McCoy, in which case he'll show the play he got injured for the season on 10 times.

Pick: Bucs (and to win)


Colts at Broncos (-6.5)

Luck is going to be fantastic this season. The bad news is, he has to be. Shame for the Colts, if they actually improved in the offseason, this would be the year to make a run at the Super Bowl, with Denver getting the hard schedule (NFC West + AFC East + Colts/Bengals), Patriots voluntarily letting linemen go and the inevitable Gronk injury (and really still no great receivers other than him), and the AFC North not scaring anybody. Don't overlook the Welker suspension here or that they lost to Indy last year; Broncos will win this one and cover.

Pick: Broncos


Giants at Lions (-4.5)

Matt Stafford - the QB who puts up good numbers but doesn't win. Eli Manning - the QB who doesn't put up good numbers but somehow has two Super Bowl rings. Get your popcorn ready.

Pick: Lions


Chargers at Cardinals (-3.5)

This Chargers team kind of scares me. They have a much easier first few games than Denver does (they could be 5-1 before the meeting in Denver), I like their additions on defense plus Ingram returning from injury, and I think Mike McCoy is going to be a very good head coach. Meanwhile, the Cardinals still have Carson Palmer and face the 49ers and Seahawks twice each. That last sentence is why I don't have them in the playoffs.

Pick: Chargers (and to win)






Thanks for reading this everyone. I'm glad to be back writing for all of you. Enjoy week one.






Tweet

Championship Preview Part 2

Andy and I preview the Championship games, then come up with a Brady/Manning drinking game for you crazy kids out there.





Tweet

Championship Week Preview

Matt Yetsko and I break down the past weekend's games, give our Super Bowl matchups, and discuss both the AFC and NFC Championship. We also exchange drunk voicemails.

(Tip: Hit the download button on the player below...It takes some time but freezes less...thanks)




Tweet

Divisional Round Preview

Zeek Nation NFL expert, Pittsburgh Pirate enthusiast, and Mark-Sanchez-era survivor, Andrew Mount joins Romo to discuss the divisional round playoffs.








In part 2, Romo talks to Matt Yetsko on a disappointing Eagles loss and who they have the most confidence in in the divisional round.





Tweet

Wild Card Weekend Preview

Here's a podcast Matt Yetsko and I did previewing what turned out to be a crazy wildcard weekend (we recorded it 2 hours before Chiefs/Colts...if you don't follow me on twitter, you'd have no way of hearing this -- until now. A division round preview is coming soon.)




Tweet

12/16 NFL Thoughts

Since I had a pretty quiet NFL-tweet day on Sunday, I’m about to post some thoughts on NFL topics that probably 0.5 of you actually care about. Adjust your procrastination habits accordingly…

1. The current Super Bowl line is NFC -2.5. 2.5? After this weekend? Denver would be at least a 4 point underdog against Seattle right now (and as a Broncos fan that seems generous in a chilly environment). I imagine a New England team without Gronk would be even bigger underdogs. The AFC is so open that even the Colts and Dolphins are legit contenders to come out of the conference, and they would be even bigger underdogs. Second point of this: You think any NFC team can go into Seattle and win? Maaaybe San Francisco since they are so familiar and did beat them slightly earlier this year (though in SF). I still say no. Grab the NFC -2.5 right now if you like money.

…And then feel free to blame me when Brady throws his fourth TD pass to either Vereen or Edelman to go up by 23 against Detroit or Philly or somebody in the Super Bowl.

2. It’s amusing to me the reputation Tony Romo has. He’s actually a good quarterback but the perception is that he’s a choker. He’ll have 3 “above average-to-borderline great” days, and then he’ll have a terrible play in the 4^th game that everybody notices which keeps the narrative alive. Meanwhile, 2-time Super Bowl champion Eli threw 5 picks this weekend to bring his total to 25 this season. But, whatever, right? Their season is lost anyway, so what does it matter?

“Romo can’t win in the big game” well sure, why not. Of course, this game Sunday would not have been a big game if he had played like Eli all season.

3. If you’re going to praise Brady for his ZOMG CLUTCHNESS in the OT win against Denver, then you have to blame him for his lack of it against Miami. Or, preferably, you could drop the clutch talk altogether (since he had a great game in both games). Teams win games, quarterbacks don’t. They help you to win a game, but by no means are they only factor.

Obviously I’m partial in who I root for, but let’s go back to the Brady/Manning debate -- sidenote: I really don't think it matters who is better, but admittedly it is fun to talk about so whatever. Without question, these are the two best quarterbacks of my generation. But when we talk about who is better, Brady backers always point to the record against each other. This is just a flawed way of thinking. The QB’s aren’t playing with or against the same defense. You would have to look at their entire body of work of their career.

Brady had a fantastic game this weekend. In the end it wasn’t enough. Does that mean Tannehill is a better QB than Brady? Well, no. But their head-to-head numbers are pretty similar. Note: I like how that page doesn’t have the QB’s records against each other. You can find it with an easy google search, but I didn’t want to make didn’t want to make your head spin.

4. I have no idea who comes out of the AFC at this point. But I’ll say this: No one wants to see the Ravens get in the playoffs. I really feel that, for whatever reason, there is something to be said about confidence being a factor in the playoffs. And there is no doubt that the Ravens are a confident bunch (or, maybe a little dumb). Giants in 2007-08, Giants in 2011-12, Ravens in 2012-13; all of these teams were extremely confident in their chances despite what everyone else thought – and each won the Super Bowl. I’m not saying the Ravens will win the Super Bowl if they make the playoffs. But I am not counting them out. (There. This paragraph should do enough to ensure that they lose by 16 to Detroit tonight...)

4:49 - Update: More quick thoughts!

5. What a great weekend for the Rams! They completely demolish the Rams, and somehow the Redskins (who are giving the Rams their first round pick) manage to lose a game that Atlanta was giving them in the fourth quarter.

6. The Titans came back from 17 points in less than 5 minutes. They score to make it 34-33 on what is essentially the last play of the regular season. The Titans essentially had nothing to play for (and now don’t).  The Titans elect to kick the game-tying XP. This isn’t the smartest thing in the world, but fine. Whatever. The Cardinals committed a penalty on the extra point attempt. The Titans now have the ball at the one-yard line! Run the ball! Steal the win! They continue with the kick. A few plays into OT, Ryan Fitzpatrick throws a pick, and the Cardinals gain some yards, kick a field goal, and win the game. C’mon teams. Grow some cahones.

7. Frank Gore didn’t have a touchdown on the field, but he may have scored off the field.

8. Wait, what’s this graphic CBS? Oh my god, stop! Get this out of here! Ew.

Tweet

NBA Preview - Eastern Conference

In our second part of the rather delayed NBA preview, Matt Yetsko joins me to preview the Eastern Conference. We discuss things such as Roy Hibbert vs. Brook Lopez, Miami's chances to 3-peat, and whether or not we think the teams not from Chicago, Indiana, Miami, and Brooklyn are for real.

It's probably the best podcast I've done so far, which, if you've listened to any other ones on here, is saying not very much.



Tweet