ROMO POWER POLL:
I got into a slight debate this past week with a few of my friends as to who the top teams in the league are right now. Granted, I am not really a fan of power rankings that much, but nonetheless they are always a good discussion, and everyone has their own opinion.
The thing that I was arguing foremost before it got into a power ranking discussion, was that, as a whole, the NFL is having a down year production-wise. This point would be way easier to see for other people if it were not for the season Green Bay is having (grrrr…how dare you play football at a high level…). I think there were a few things that were either lost on what I was saying, or just need added emphasis. First off, even though I think this (and so should you, it is quite obvious), it is not necessarily a bad thing. The entire AFC and the rest of the NFC (for what it’s worth) are completely wide open. There is a case for all four 9-3 teams in the AFC (let’s say that Pitt is still 9-3) as to who is the best team. Also, the slew of 7-5 teams in both conferences makes for some very intriguing games to say the least, even if it isn’t the best football you’ll see in your lifetime.
Anyway, the main thing is this: Both the AFC and the NFC are having down years.
This is the best way I can explain it: Let’s look at the AFC first. The Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers are all 9-3…But haven’t we seen them all play better football in years past? Last year, the Patriots went 14-2 and Brady threw 4 interceptions all year. They had the best offense in the league and an above-average defense that did not allow many points. This year’s team is not nearly as good. Steelers? Last year had the best defense as far as points allowed and Roethlisberger had just 5 interceptions. The 2008 team that won the Super Bowl had a way better defense and more efficient offense. Essentially they looked better in 2008 and 2010 than they do this year as well. And the Ravens? While the Ravens have improved defensively from their past 2 years, the offense is pretty much exactly the same where it has been the past two, with the exception of Ray Rice’s productivity increase. Plus, while they in my opinion are the best team in the AFC so far this year, their unpredictability has caused concern heading into the playoffs. Looking at other teams, the Jets, although they will probably finish the regular season with at least a 9-7 record and possibly a 10-6 one, which would give them their best regular season finish under Rex Ryan, they too have looked better in years past. The Texans have significantly improved on defense, and have a great running game, but there are causes of concern since they are without their first two quarterbacks and have Andre Johnson on and off again with reoccurring injuries.
In the NFC, there is a similar story. Ignore the Packers for a second again. The two other best teams in the conference are the 10-2 49ers and the 9-3 Saints. The 49ers are a great story and Jim Harbaugh is likely the coach of the year. But do the 49ers really scare anybody? There is no denying that they have a great defense, but offensively they could not do a single thing against Baltimore on Thanksgiving. Shutting out the Rams is cool, but you are not facing the Rams in the playoffs. The Saints and Packers can score. Speaking of the Saints, they just look completely lost at times on defense. The Packers rank lower defensively, but there at least seems to be some sort of sense that everyone is on the same page, and they know they can afford to gamble. The Saints defense at least once a week has two safeties looking at each other in confusion. All I know is that if the second best team the NFC has to offer is the 2011 version of the 49ers or the Saints, the 2009 Vikings are probably in complete disbelief.
And while the Packers are having a tremendous season, has their offense really improved more than their defense has fallen? Would the 2010 Packers beat the 2011 Packers? Plus, what if they do not win it all? Even if they do finish 16-0, it would then be seen as a down year for them too, would it not?
So now, without further ado, here is, with 4 games left to go, the 2011 ROMO POWER POLL.
1. Packers – duh.
2. Ravens – Most complete team in the AFC, beaten the Steelers twice, have the formula to win in the playoffs. Also, winning against quality teams should count more than losing against bad teams.
3. Steelers – Big Ben isn’t having his best year, but he’s still having a good one. Beat New England, lost to Houston and Baltimore.
4. Saints – Slightly better than San Francisco, need to win a game away from the dome.
5. Patriots – Very solid offensively, questionable at times on defense. Beat Oakland on the road, and NYJ twice, have an easy schedule rest of the way minus a trip to Denver.
6. 49ers – Very solid defensively but have not beaten anyone good. Alex Smith is having his best year, but I’ll let you know when I trust him.
7. Texans – Would be higher most likely without their injuries. Very solid on both sides of the ball. TJ Yates has to be a good game manager for them to do anything in the postseason
(Note: 2-7 are incredibly bunched together. Could be considered 2a.-2f.)
And here comes the mess of 7-5 teams that are incredibly tough to separate. None of them are any good, but because #’s 2-7 are all beatable, we still must pay attention to them.
8. Lions – I really wanted to pick someone else to go here, but due to their offensive capability, they get here by default. Built to destroy bad teams, and play mediocre against good teams.
9. Broncos – Clearly jinxing my own team, but again, who else should go here? Improved defensively (though not as much as everybody thinks), wins against other 7-5 teams (Jets, Bengals) are another reason they are up here.
10. Jets – Literally, every time I look to come up with who to put next, I go to type it am just like “Really? (team x) is the (eighth, ninth, and now tenth) best team in the NFL?” Very good defensively, starting to trust their run game again, and Sanchez is back to fooling us into thinking he’s decent again.
11. Bengals – Some people have them way higher, others have them lower…but they would currently have the sixth AFC seed right now. I actually think the Titans are a better team, but they did win at Nashville.
12. Titans – Sneaky team that could grab the last spot. Chris Johnson is looking like he deserves half the money he got in his contract again.
13. Falcons – I’m sorry, but I must have missed the meeting where we decided that the Falcons were head and shoulders above every other 7-5 team. Matt Ryan just looks lost at times, especially against good defenses. They won at Detroit, and home against Tennessee, but lost against Tampa and Chicago, plus at home against a Saints team that tried to give them that game…until they decided they would rather re-gift the game back to New Orleans.
14. Cowboys – God the NFC East is so bad this year. Romo has games where he looks like everything is going for him, and then he has others where he gets fooled by some of the easiest coverages. (Hint, don’t throw to Revis, ESPECIALLY if he has over the top help)
15. Raiders – The defensive woes are starting to mount. Beat the Jets and the Texans in that Win for Al Davis game, but lost to the Chiefs, Bills, and the Dolphins.
16. Giants – Another Jekyll and Hyde team, but at least looked good last week despite losing. If they can play consistently like that, they’ll make the playoffs, but the thing is, they can’t.
17. Bears – Would be higher if they still had Matt Forte and to a lesser degree Jay Cutler. And as my friend Adam Vida would say, if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.
(Note: to save you and me time, I’ll just list the rest of my teams)
18. Seahawks
19. Cardinals
20. Chargers
21. Dolphins
22. Bills
23. Eagles
24. Panthers
25. Chiefs
26. Redskins
27. Bucs
28. Browns
29. Jaguars
30. Vikings
31. Rams
32. Colts
That was completely vomit-endusing. I don’t know how anyone can say the NFC or AFC is not having down years. Just ask yourself, does my team honestly look better this year than it does last year. Chances are you are saying no. (I admittedly am saying yes, but …c’mon.)
Let’s get to some picks.
Falcons at Panthers (+2.5)
Despite the Falcons’ offense looking completely inept the last couple weeks, they now get to play the Panthers which seems to be the cure to most teams’ offensive woes. Also, I’ve now read articles in the past week about how Aaron Rodgers is not the MVP (Brady is) and Cam Newton is not the Rookie of the Year (Andy Dalton is). Honestly, people, why make your job harder than it needs to be. This is the easiest year in the last five to pick both those awards. (Hint: it’s not Brady or Dalton)
Pick: Falcons
Texans at Bengals (-3.5)
This is a bad matchup for the Texans, but could be what the T.J. Yates doubters need to realize that the Texans will be alright without Matt Schaub. The Bengals are probably the best out of the AFC’s 7-5 teams, but that does not really say much.
Pick: Bengals
Vikings at Lions (-7.5)
The Lions are built to feast on bad teams, and if Tim Tebow can torch your secondary, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson should be resting in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Lions
Saints at Titans (+3.5)
This past week or so I have spent defending two teams in particular: the Texans and the Saints. However, I feel like both of them go down this week due to bad matchups. Also, it hardly seems fair that Chris Johnson is good again right before the fantasy playoffs.
Pick: Titans (and to win)
Colts at Ravens (-16.5)
You know, it IS time for the Ravens customary “one step back” part of their “three steps forward then one step back” routine that they are doing this season… Just saying.
Pick: Colts
Chiefs at Jets (-8.5)
Oh man the Chiefs have become a terrible team. Meanwhile, the Jets need this game to keep pace with the 7-5’s of the world. Plus the week 17 game against the Dolphins is probably going to be a competitive game instead of the usual “We will now rest our starters and allow the Jets to make the playoffs” end-of-the-year game.
Pick: Jets
Eagles at Dolphins (-3.5)
The Dolphins have clearly turned it around since their 0-7 start. In other news, would the rest of the NFC East please stop sucking so I don’t have to hear every local reporter keep saying “you know (laughs) as bad as it’s been (looks to the other reporters) the Eagles are actually still in this!”
Pick: Eagles (and to win)
Patriots at Redskins (+8.5)
Patriots win big. Bonus prediction: Every time the Pats get into the red zone this week, Belichick will have Brady will throw to Aaron Hernandez this week instead of Rob Gronkowski, solely to piss off the fantasy owners that have rode Gronk’s coattails all year long.
Pick: Patriots
Buccaneers at Jaguars (+1.5)
In depth Bucs-Jags analysis! Click
here!
Pick: Buccaneers
Bears at Broncos (-3.5)
Last week’s Broncos game will hopefully show people two things. First, people have wanted to deflect praise from Tebow for so long, and have done so by giving it to our defense. They have done so for so long now, that our defense is now more overrated than our quarterback. In fact, while they have played infinitely better than I’ve seen them play the past 4 years, it still is a very beatable defense, especially if you can avoid the pass rush. The second thing is that Tebow can get better as a passer, he just needs the reps. That’s why, god forbid, if we ever get a game where we are leading by a comfortable margin, I want to see nothing but passes instead of the usual runs to kill the clock. Also, this is the first time that the Broncos were even good enough to warrant a trap game in forever.
Pick: Bears
49ers at Cardinals (+3.5)
Answer me this: Of all the teams 7-5 or better, how many have improved in BOTH offense and defense from last year? (Hint: one, the 49ers).
Pick: 49ers
Bills at Chargers (-6.5)
If you want an outside chance at making a lot of money, put a small amount of money on the Chargers winning the Super Bowl. I’ll believe they don’t win the AFC West when I see it.
Pick: Chargers
Raiders at Packers (-11.5)
This is another somewhat favorable matchup for the team facing the Packers. But before you go making any bold predictions, just think: What do I trust more late in the game, Aaron Rodgers with the season he’s on, or Carson Palmer against an opportunistic defense?
Pick: Packers
Giants at Cowboys (-3.5)
The Giants played their best game of the season and still lost. The Cowboys could have basically wrapped up the division despite the two Giants games still left to go, but iced their own kicker. The NFC East!
Pick: Giants (and to win)
Rams at Seahawks (-6.5)
I’m going to throw out a confession: I would watch the Seahawks play the Dolphins right now and probably be thoroughly entertained.
Pick: Seahawks
Last Week:
Spread: 11-5
Non Spread: 12-4
Season:
Spread: 98-94 (back over .500 bitches!)
Non-Spread: 123-68
