Ravens over PATRIOTS (-7.5)
The Patriots looked like a well-oiled machine in their divisional round playoff win over my Denver Broncos. The Ravens looked like, well a team that did what they needed to do to get the job done with an assist from Jacoby Jones and a few from T.J. Yates (on a separate note, Yates threw the ball well the majority of the game; it’s just that his mistakes, even though they were less numerous than Flacco’s, were a lot bigger. i.e. interceptions.) So since Tom Brady is no T.J. Yates, it should stand to reason that the Patriots will win comfortably, right?
No.
Here’s the thing: Denver is an anomaly. They get phased by weird things when it comes to defenses. Pittsburgh’s wasn’t much of a problem, whereas New England held them to one touchdown and a meaningless field goal after the game was out of reach. My theory on this is pretty simple: Tebow isn’t like most quarterbacks, ….if you haven’t realized. (Now stay with me on this, because I’m going to break down the Denver game, and then relay it to this week. I know, I know, Flacco, everyone talks about Tebow, but not you. Don't worry. I’ll get to you.) Let’s say there is no defense whatsoever and the offense is just running routes. There’s probably still times when the passes are incomplete. My point is that Pittsburgh did a good job with schemes that would allow one guy to break free and get to the quarterback. But when the play breaks down for Tebow, he goes into scramble/make-something-happen mode. And when he does this, that one guy who gets to Tebow is 9 times out of 10 not going to bring him down…if he’s by himself. Tebow can avoid defenders one at a time like almost no other quarterback. The Steelers got to him quick, usually with Timmons or Harrison. But never the whole package at once. The Patriots on the other hand did not get to him all that quickly, but they got to him all at the same time. There was nowhere for Tebow to go to because the whole line collapsed together. (Tebow struggles to read defenses as it is, plus our receivers aren’t great, so our offense can struggle even when there is no pressure on him.)
Flacco, however, is different. When he has time in the pocket, he can hit his receivers surprisingly accurately. In the Texans game however, there were plenty of times that the rush got to him. The Texans did a good job finding ways to get someone (usually JJ Watt) to make Flacco uncomfortable. And that’s all it took really, on Sunday. As soon as the play broke down, you knew Flacco was taking a sack, or making an errand pass. The Texans got to him quickly and often.
Flacco, however, is different. When he has time in the pocket, he can hit his receivers surprisingly accurately. In the Texans game however, there were plenty of times that the rush got to him. The Texans did a good job finding ways to get someone (usually JJ Watt) to make Flacco uncomfortable. And that’s all it took really, on Sunday. As soon as the play broke down, you knew Flacco was taking a sack, or making an errand pass. The Texans got to him quickly and often.
Now, flip to this Sunday. The Patriots still do not get to the quarterback that quickly. The performance in the Denver game I believe was a good matchup turning into favorable defensive stats. Give Flacco that amount of time, and the Ravens offense should be able to put up plenty of points on the scoreboard. (One caveat, if Ray Rice has a similar game as the one he had last Sunday, completely ignore that last sentence.) Rice torched the Patriots in their playoff game two years ago, although was held in check the last time they played in the regular season. This defense of the Patriots is not good; they are getting healthy, and the Denver game definitely gives them swagger, but after a few successful Ravens’ drives, that swagger could be gone.
Now, the problem is, the Patriots are no slouches on offense. The Gronk/Hernandez duo is a total nightmare for most defenses, throw in the always scrappy Wes Welker, the reliable Deion Branch, and when Belichick feels like rubbing it in, Chad Ochocinco, and you have yourselves a potent offense. The middle linebackers and safeties will have their hands full, while the D line and the outside linebackers led by T-Sizzle will need to make Brady throw before he wants to if the Ravens want to need less than 40 to win.
This is a favorable matchup for the Ravens. The Patriots don’t run the ball, and when they do, it’s not too successful. The Ravens love to pass rush. The Ravens have a pocket passer that’s itching to prove he can throw against mediocre a secondary in a big game. So far this postseason, when the matchup has been favorable (Denver against Pitt/NYG against GB), the underdog has taken advantage. I think that happens again here.
RAVENS 31; PATRIOTS 26.
Giants over NINERS (-2.5)
I mentioned this in a tweet last week, and I’ve said things like it before this past year: Whenever the Giants look really good, and everyone (particularly their fans) has faith in them, that’s when they like to drop a turd. See, 2007 worked because the whole time, no one thought they were going to win the next game (I say no one in a general sense, I don’t need to hear what your outrageous prediction going into the playoffs was that year…). More recently, this year, they looked awful against the Saints. Like, awful. Then their next two games, they go toe-to-toe with the Packers, which no one had done all year, and then they have that magnificent comeback performance against Dallas.
So naturally, just when people started believing (bELIeving, of course, which your can’t spell without ELI) again, boom, turd dropped. But then, lo, Jets game followed by Dallas part two game, and then Falcons annihilation and Packers manhandling… the question very well becomes… when is that turd coming? Will it be this week…? Super Bowl Sunday…?? Or, when Giants’ fans hope, not until September next season in a game they should win, probably against the Redskins…?
Granted…the above was merely trends… nothing that would pass for any traditional analysis on this upcoming game between what are two very surprising stories, and two teams that, before the season, I definitely did not expect to still be standing. You have to love the front seven of the Niners, and having three excellent pass rushers on one D-line like the Giants do is an offensive line’s nightmare.
So what is the key in all of this? What is going to decide the game? Well I’m glad you hypothetically asked! The answer is how the Niners choose to play the game. The Niners can do one thing that I do not think the Giants will be able to do. And that is run the ball effectively and take pressure off of their quarterback. Frank Gore is the key to this game. How the Niners choose to use him, how he performs against what isn’t a great run defense, and how Alex Smith plays off of the running game if it opens up, should give San Francisco an advantage. The Niners can rush Manning and they also have the secondary to capitalize on mistakes. They have been doing so all year.
T,he Giants, have not had a great secondary all year, but granted, they have dealt with numerous injuries all year, plus I believe they are at their healthiest point all season right now. Healthy is good. Also, their receivers (other than Ballard) on Sunday caught just about everything that was thrown their way, whereas the Packers' receivers uncharacteristically had the dropsies.
(One last sidenote...can you please stop telling me that the Packers' receivers are that much better than the Saints'? I always hear, "oh but Rodgers has so many weapons..." ...what do you think Brees has? I'll give you if we're doing just top two WR's, then yes, I'll take Jennings and Nelson over Colston and whichever wideout is #2 on the Saints' depth chart this week... but overall? It's pretty much a toss-up people... Henderson, Moore, Meachem. Plus Brees has the luxury of Sproles in his backfield as a pass-catcher. And, oh yeah, almost forgot.... Jimmy Graham, the best rookie tight end with a GR- last name this year, not named Gronkowski... aka the second best tight end, period. Look, Brees has weapons, Rodgers has weapons. No denying that. Both of them have had tremendous seasons that, unfortunately for them, wrapped up last week. If you think Brees has had a better season than Rodgers, then he is your MVP. I think Rodgers has, so he would get my vote. It is really close. But don't use extraneous reasoning like "QB X has a better team around him", or my personal anti-favorite, "well if you take QB X off of team X, they would still be good." Really? That's how we're deciding MVP's? So if Matt Flynn went out there and looked like the second coming of JaMarcus Russell, Rodgers would have a better case for MVP? Plus, it was a meaningless game...don't you think the QB who is trying to prove he can play in the league as a starter might be a little motivated to perform well in that game than Rodgers? Just saying. Hypotheticals and what-if's as reasons for MVP awards do not make sense to me. Grade the performances you see on the field, and take it from there. [drops mic])
T,he Giants, have not had a great secondary all year, but granted, they have dealt with numerous injuries all year, plus I believe they are at their healthiest point all season right now. Healthy is good. Also, their receivers (other than Ballard) on Sunday caught just about everything that was thrown their way, whereas the Packers' receivers uncharacteristically had the dropsies.
(One last sidenote...can you please stop telling me that the Packers' receivers are that much better than the Saints'? I always hear, "oh but Rodgers has so many weapons..." ...what do you think Brees has? I'll give you if we're doing just top two WR's, then yes, I'll take Jennings and Nelson over Colston and whichever wideout is #2 on the Saints' depth chart this week... but overall? It's pretty much a toss-up people... Henderson, Moore, Meachem. Plus Brees has the luxury of Sproles in his backfield as a pass-catcher. And, oh yeah, almost forgot.... Jimmy Graham, the best rookie tight end with a GR- last name this year, not named Gronkowski... aka the second best tight end, period. Look, Brees has weapons, Rodgers has weapons. No denying that. Both of them have had tremendous seasons that, unfortunately for them, wrapped up last week. If you think Brees has had a better season than Rodgers, then he is your MVP. I think Rodgers has, so he would get my vote. It is really close. But don't use extraneous reasoning like "QB X has a better team around him", or my personal anti-favorite, "well if you take QB X off of team X, they would still be good." Really? That's how we're deciding MVP's? So if Matt Flynn went out there and looked like the second coming of JaMarcus Russell, Rodgers would have a better case for MVP? Plus, it was a meaningless game...don't you think the QB who is trying to prove he can play in the league as a starter might be a little motivated to perform well in that game than Rodgers? Just saying. Hypotheticals and what-if's as reasons for MVP awards do not make sense to me. Grade the performances you see on the field, and take it from there. [drops mic])
But anyway, this really is a tough game to predict. I've gone back and forth on this a bunch...
But I can’t resist. SupHAR BOUGH it is.
49ERS: 22, GIANTS: 20.
PLAYOFF RECORD:
Last week:
Spread: 2-2
Non-Spread: 3-1
Playoffs:
Spread: 5-3
Non-Spread: 6-2
Last week:
Spread: 2-2
Non-Spread: 3-1
Playoffs:
Spread: 5-3
Non-Spread: 6-2
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