Super Bowl Preview + PROPS contest

I’m 7-3 this postseason with my picks (5-5 non-spread, but who gives a crap about that!).  Whether I get Sunday’s game right or wrong, this will be my best postseason ever.  So I’m either going to pick the Patriots or the Giants, I’ll either be right or wrong, and then we will have no football for another seven months.  Do you know how long that is!?!  Screw this.  We have to milk this game for all it’s worth.  I can’t just pick the game with a few paragraphs of analysis, ignore my second guessing that says to go with the other team, and add a few jokes like I always do. 

Thankfully there are Super Bowl props!

Now most of the ones that you see floating around are just boring, standard, and frankly, hard to predict.  Like, “Will Tom Brady throw for more than 300 yards?”… who knows.  Or, “who will win the coin toss?”  … true story, I actually won 3 dollars from the coin toss my junior year in college because right before the coin toss I said the Saints would win the toss, it would be heads, and they would receive...and bet a dollar on each.  All three came true. Thanks, Klein.

Well because I don’t want the NFL season to end, I came up with a list of not so ordinary prop bets.  Also, if you like, you can play along with me.  Just make your picks below in the comment section and whoever has the most right will get a shoutout tweet, bragging rights, and some other prize that I can’t think of yet.  Maybe if I become famous one day I’ll send you a t-shirt.  Maybe.  Just make sure your answers line up with the number of the corresponding question.

HERE WE GO!

1.  Who will catch a pass first? 
A. Rob Gronkowski
B. Aaron Hernandez

2.  Will Victor Cruz do the salsa dance?
A. Yes
B. No

3.  How many field goals will be MADE in the game by either team?
A. None or 1
B. 2-3
C. 4-5
D. 6 or more

4.  Number of times Al Michaels/Cris Collingsworth will mention COOPER MANNING?
A. None
B. 1 or more

5.  Will Madonna play “Like a Prayer” during the halftime show?
A. Yes
B. No

6.  Which total will be greater?
A. Number of Wes Welker receptions + Number of Eli Manning touchdown passes
B. Number of points Lawrence Tynes will score

7.  What will be the first score that the GIANTS get?
A. Touchdown
B. Field Goal or Safety

8.  The person who scores the first touchdown of the game for either team will be wearing…
A. an even-numbered jersey.
B. an odd-numbered jersey.

9.  At any time throughout the game, will Al Michaels say the words “Tim Tebow”?
A. Yes
B. No

10.  What will be the first ACCEPTED penalty of the game?
A. Holding
B. False Start
C. Any Other Penalty

11. Which of the following will happen during the game?
A. Eli Manning will take a knee
B. Tom Brady will take a knee
C. Neither QB or Both QB’s will take a knee

12.  Which total will be greater?
A. Receptions by Patriots’ tight ends
B. Receptions by Giants’ wide receivers

13.  Will Eli Manning throw an interception?
A. Yes
B. No

14.  After the ball has been kicked off, which will happen first?
A. Bud Lite commercial
B. Miller Lite commercial
C. Coors Lite commercial

15. Who will be the Super Bowl MVP?
A. Eli Manning or Tom Brady
B. Any Other Player

16.  Which will happen during the game?
A. Tom Coughlin will throw his red flag first
B. Bill Belichick will throw his red flag first
C. Neither coach will throw a red flag the entire game

17.  Which total will be greater?
A. Patriots’ rushing total
B. Giants’ rushing total

18.  Which total will be greater?
A. The total number of points in the game
B. The length of the longest MADE field goal in the game

19.  Will ANY of the following happen during the game?
1. A fan will run onto the field
2. Someone will be carted off the field
3. The game will go into overtime
4. Chad Ochocinco will catch a touchdown

A. Yes
B. No

20.  Will Kelly Clarkson’s belly button be visible during the National Anthem?
A. Yes
B. No

TIEBREAKER: How many points will be scored in the THIRD QUARTER?

(My answers are in the comment section below.  That is where to post yours as well.)

Okay, now to the actual game:

Giants (+2.5) over Patriots.

I was pretty confident in this pick around Sunday.  Now I’m starting to worry about it.  Here is my thought process:

There is not too much different from the matchup between the Giants/Patriots one in the Super Bowl and the Giants/Packers one we saw a few weeks ago.  And that game was completely dominated by the Giants.  Granted, they were aided by a few uncharacteristically dropped passes by the Green Bay receivers, but for the most part, the Giants had an answer for everything the Packers were doing. 

But here is why the Patriots are slightly different than the Packers (Other than the fact that the Packers played the Giants outdoors in the cold, which could POSSIBLY explain the drops. Lucas Oil Stadium is of course indoors).  The Patriots two best receivers can line up (and usually do) on the line in the box.  They can pass block on occasion, or cut block then look for a pass.  This type of formation/technique is a favorite of mine, and works effectively both in the NFL and when I play noobs in Madden. 

The Giants should have a field day in the passing game.  I can’t stress to you how bad the Patriots secondary is.  You can get away with it when your pass rush steps up late in the season, or when you’re facing Tim Tebow in the playoffs who struggles to complete passes when there’s no defense, but now you’re facing the wrath of Eli.  Plus I’m pretty sure Cruz, Nicks, or Manningham will find a way to get open against Julian Edelman. 

If the Patriots do give Brady time, expect Wes Welker to have a big game.   I love the Welker vs. the Giants’ secondary matchup for New England, especially when Deon Grant will be focused on Gronk most of the game. 

Also, I wonder if the two-week break between games is going to ruin the momentum that the Giants have accumulated. 

I’m just going to make my pick before I overthink it 20 more times.  I’m going with:

GIANTS: 32, Patriots: 27.

Postseason:

Spread: 7-3

Non-Spread: 5-5

Championship Weekend:

Spread: 2-0

Non-Spread: 0-2

Good luck to everyone who posts their SB Prop picks below.  Just the letter for each answer will suffice. I will buy the winner a drink next time I see them.

(Post your picks below. Really. What have you got to lose?)

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NFL Championship Sunday Preview

Ravens over PATRIOTS (-7.5)

The Patriots looked like a well-oiled machine in their divisional round playoff win over my Denver Broncos.  The Ravens looked like, well a team that did what they needed to do to get the job done with an assist from Jacoby Jones and a few from T.J. Yates (on a separate note, Yates threw the ball well the majority of the game; it’s just that his mistakes, even though they were less numerous than Flacco’s, were a lot bigger. i.e. interceptions.)  So since Tom Brady is no T.J. Yates, it should stand to reason that the Patriots will win comfortably, right?

No.

Here’s the thing: Denver is an anomaly.  They get phased by weird things when it comes to defenses.  Pittsburgh’s wasn’t much of a problem, whereas New England held them to one touchdown and a meaningless field goal after the game was out of reach.  My theory on this is pretty simple:  Tebow isn’t like most quarterbacks, ….if you haven’t realized.  (Now stay with me on this, because I’m going to break down the Denver game, and then relay it to this week.  I know, I know, Flacco, everyone talks about Tebow, but not you.  Don't worry.  I’ll get to you.)  Let’s say there is no defense whatsoever and the offense is just running routes.  There’s probably still times when the passes are incomplete.  My point is that Pittsburgh did a good job with schemes that would allow one guy to break free and get to the quarterback.  But when the play breaks down for Tebow, he goes into scramble/make-something-happen mode.  And when he does this, that one guy who gets to Tebow is 9 times out of 10 not going to bring him down…if he’s by himself.  Tebow can avoid defenders one at a time like almost no other quarterback.  The Steelers got to him quick, usually with Timmons or Harrison.  But never the whole package at once.  The Patriots on the other hand did not get to him all that quickly, but they got to him all at the same time.  There was nowhere for Tebow to go to because the whole line collapsed together.  (Tebow struggles to read defenses as it is, plus our receivers aren’t great, so our offense can struggle even when there is no pressure on him.)

Flacco, however, is different.  When he has time in the pocket, he can hit his receivers surprisingly accurately.  In the Texans game however, there were plenty of times that the rush got to him.  The Texans did a good job finding ways to get someone (usually JJ Watt) to make Flacco uncomfortable.  And that’s all it took really, on Sunday.  As soon as the play broke down, you knew Flacco was taking a sack, or making an errand pass.  The Texans got to him quickly and often. 

Now, flip to this Sunday.  The Patriots still do not get to the quarterback that quickly.  The performance in the Denver game I believe was a good matchup turning into favorable defensive stats.  Give Flacco that amount of time, and the Ravens offense should be able to put up plenty of points on the scoreboard.  (One caveat, if Ray Rice has a similar game as the one he had last Sunday, completely ignore that last sentence.)  Rice torched the Patriots in their playoff game two years ago, although was held in check the last time they played in the regular season.   This defense of the Patriots is not good; they are getting healthy, and the Denver game definitely gives them swagger, but after a few successful Ravens’ drives, that swagger could be gone.

Now, the problem is, the Patriots are no slouches on offense.  The Gronk/Hernandez duo is a total nightmare for most defenses, throw in the always scrappy Wes Welker, the reliable Deion Branch, and when Belichick feels like rubbing it in, Chad Ochocinco, and you have yourselves a potent offense.  The middle linebackers and safeties will have their hands full, while the D line and the outside linebackers led by T-Sizzle will need to make Brady throw before he wants to if the Ravens want to need less than 40 to win.

This is a favorable matchup for the Ravens.  The Patriots don’t run the ball, and when they do, it’s not too successful.  The Ravens love to pass rush.  The Ravens have a pocket passer that’s itching to prove he can throw against mediocre a secondary in a big game.  So far this postseason, when the matchup has been favorable (Denver against Pitt/NYG against GB), the underdog has taken advantage.  I think that happens again here.

RAVENS 31; PATRIOTS 26.

Giants over NINERS (-2.5)

I mentioned this in a tweet last week, and I’ve said things like it before this past year:  Whenever the Giants look really good, and everyone (particularly their fans) has faith in them, that’s when they like to drop a turd.  See, 2007 worked because the whole time, no one thought they were going to win the next game (I say no one in a general sense, I don’t need to hear what your outrageous prediction going into the playoffs was that year…).  More recently, this year, they looked awful against the Saints.  Like, awful.  Then their next two games, they go toe-to-toe with the Packers, which no one had done all year, and then they have that magnificent comeback performance against Dallas.

So naturally, just when people started believing (bELIeving, of course, which your can’t spell without ELI) again, boom, turd dropped.  But then, lo, Jets game followed by Dallas part two game, and then Falcons annihilation and Packers manhandling… the question very well becomes… when is that turd coming?  Will it be this week…?   Super Bowl Sunday…??  Or, when Giants’ fans hope, not until September next season in a game they should win, probably against the Redskins…?

Granted…the above was merely trends… nothing that would pass for any traditional analysis on this upcoming game between what are two very surprising stories, and two teams that, before the season, I definitely did not expect to still be standing.  You have to love the front seven of the Niners, and having three excellent pass rushers on one D-line like the Giants do is an offensive line’s nightmare. 

So what is the key in all of this?  What is going to decide the game?  Well I’m glad you hypothetically asked!  The answer is how the Niners choose to play the game.  The Niners can do one thing that I do not think the Giants will be able to do.  And that is run the ball effectively and take pressure off of their quarterback.  Frank Gore is the key to this game.  How the Niners choose to use him, how he performs against what isn’t a great run defense, and how Alex Smith plays off of the running game if it opens up, should give San Francisco an advantage.  The Niners can rush Manning and they also have the secondary to capitalize on mistakes.  They have been doing so all year.

T,he Giants, have not had a great secondary all year, but granted, they have dealt with numerous injuries all year, plus I believe they are at their healthiest point all season right now.  Healthy is good.  Also, their receivers (other than Ballard) on Sunday caught just about everything that was thrown their way, whereas the Packers' receivers uncharacteristically had the dropsies.

(One last sidenote...can you please stop telling me that the Packers' receivers are that much better than the Saints'?  I always hear, "oh but Rodgers has so many weapons..." ...what do you think Brees has?  I'll give you if we're doing just top two WR's, then yes, I'll take Jennings and Nelson over Colston and whichever wideout is #2 on the Saints' depth chart this week... but overall? It's pretty much a toss-up people... Henderson, Moore, Meachem.  Plus Brees has the luxury of Sproles in his backfield as a pass-catcher.  And, oh yeah, almost forgot.... Jimmy Graham, the best rookie tight end with a GR- last name this year, not named Gronkowski... aka the second best tight end, period.  Look, Brees has weapons, Rodgers has weapons.  No denying that.  Both of them have had tremendous seasons that, unfortunately for them, wrapped up last week.  If you think Brees has had a better season than Rodgers, then he is your MVP.  I think Rodgers has, so he would get my vote.  It is really close.  But don't use extraneous reasoning like "QB X has a better team around him", or my personal anti-favorite, "well if you take QB X off of team X, they would still be good."  Really?  That's how we're deciding MVP's?  So if Matt Flynn went out there and looked like the second coming of JaMarcus Russell, Rodgers would have a better case for MVP?  Plus, it was a meaningless game...don't you think the QB who is trying to prove he can play in the league as a starter might be a little motivated to perform well in that game than Rodgers?  Just saying.  Hypotheticals and what-if's as reasons for MVP awards do not make sense to me.  Grade the performances you see on the field, and take it from there. [drops mic])

But anyway, this really is a tough game to predict. I've gone back and forth on this a bunch...

But I can’t resist.  SupHAR BOUGH it is. 

                                  

49ERS: 22, GIANTS: 20.

PLAYOFF RECORD:

Last week:

Spread: 2-2
Non-Spread: 3-1

Playoffs:

Spread: 5-3
Non-Spread: 6-2

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Wild Card Weekend Preview

 

I haven’t written anything for awhile, and I apologize for that.  I was busy doing one of the following: (a.) watching tv series’ that I got for Christmas, (b.) celebrating the New Year in Baltimore perhaps a bit too hard, (c.) watching my team painfully back into the playoffs, (d.) applying for way more jobs than I should have, or (e.) writing things for people/companies that aren’t worth my time.  So, it’s good to be back at my favorite place to write.

I am eventually going to get an NBA Preview written.  I tweeted here and here Christmas day briefly my quick NBA regular season standings, and I’m pleased with how most of them are looking, but will probably fix the west slightly to adjust for key injuries.  I know, I shouldn’t be able to do that.  Oh well.  It’s my blog.  It’s pretty much the only thing I can 100% control right now.

Anyway back to football. 

Some quick points on this year’s playoff teams:

1.       I cannot remember a year before this one where the top teams in the playoffs have had this many obvious flaws/injuries.  It won’t be easy to beat the Packers/Saints/Patriots, but it really does not take a genius to game plan for them, does it?  Ball control, short passes, run as successfully as possible, don’t go after their one big playmaker on defense, keep their hot QB on the sidelines, and when he is on the field, rush the bejesus out of him because he is most likely going to complete passes anyway.  As for the Steelers, these mounting injuries are just awful.  If I were a Steelers fan, I’d look at the AFC and go, really?  This should be even easier than last year, but now our quarterback is as mobile as a chair without wheels, our running back is gone and now we have a guy who fumbled twice against the Browns, we’re starting some fat guy from row 12 in our offensive line, and our safety can’t play in the first round or he might die.  I just don’t see how the Ravens don’t come out of the AFC.  More on that next week…

2.       I think the Patriots fans should be rooting for the Broncos on Sunday possibly even more than Broncos fans like me should be.  Here’s why:  The Patriots’ defense is atrocious.  Particularly their pass defense.  But let’s take a look at the other 5 quarterbacks in the AFC.  Joe Flacco (meh), T.J. Yates (with, of course, the threat of Jake Delhomme), Tim Tebow (rolls eyes), Andy Dalton (please…), and then Ben Roethlisberger.  If the Broncos were to somehow, someway take out the Steelers… the Patriots’ dreadful secondary would possibly only have to face a rookie and one slightly above average quarterback to reach the Super Bowl.

3.       I’m starting to think we actually won’t get the Packers/Saints NFC Championship game that we all (well, I at least) have been pushing for since Week 10.  It just seems too obvious.  These are the playoffs, remember.   This is the same spot where the 7-9 Seahawks beat went #BeastMode all over the Saints last year.  The Lions match up horribly against the Saints, so I highly doubt that happens this year, but I have a strange feeling that either the Saints or Packers go down in the divisional round.  I hope I’m wrong.

4.       The Falcons and Bengals are frauds.  I do not understand why people think either team is good.  Yet I can already see both of them possibly advancing because the Texans forgot how to win since they got that whole clinch-a-playoff-spot monkey off of their back, and the New York Giants are just as predictable as … hold on, before I make that analogy, I take it back.  The Giants aren’t unpredictable at all!  Rather, just when you think you have them figured out, they consistently prove you wrong.  They always do this!  Just when you thought they sucked, boom, Packers game and Cowboys game.  Just when you thought they were great, boom, Redskins game.  Forget the RomoCoaster, there should be an entire NFC East coaster.

5.       I think I speak for every rational Broncos fan when I say, stop teasing me with these Steelers injuries.  Stop it.  We’re not doing anything right offensively, why would it start now against the #1 ranked defense in the league?  It’s like the football gods are trying to make this game close, just to rip my heart out at the end.  (Also, scroll down about midway in this Bill Simmons piece, until you get to the email from Brett from Arkansas.  I would take that deal in a heartbeat.)

Ok, time for some picks.

I didn’t post my picks on here, but I went 8-8, winning every game after 4:00 except the Steelers and only getting the Packers, Eagles and Bears right in the early games (thanks Jets for that last minute touchdown.  I guess since you wrecked your winning season, you had to score that last touchdown to wreck my winning record in week 17.)

I finished the season 130-126 against the spread and a lot better without it.

As for this weekend:

TEXANS over Bengals (+3)

I have little confidence in this one, but I’m using logic.  Logic in the fact that Houston beat Cincinnati earlier, with T.J. Yates, at Cincinnati, and now gets to play them in a packed Houston house that hasn’t seen a playoff game I think since that one year the Yao and McGrady were both not injured…at least, at the end of the season.

Houston: 23, Cincinnati: 17

 Lions over SAINTS (-10.5)

Here’s the thing about the Lions: They can still score points.  I’m not sure who is going to cover Calvin Johnson, but I would still throw him the ball regardless.  Also, if the Saints get down 3 at the half like 17-14, and then maybe by 10 midway through the third, the whole building is going to be thinking “not again…not this late game wildcard weekend shit, againnnnn”.

New Orleans: 34, Detroit: 30

GIANTS over Falcons (+3)

I think I'm most confident about this pick. But I'm actually more confident you will see each of the following:  a 7-yard completion from Eli to Victor Cruz that goes for 60 more yards after the catch, inflating Eli’s stat line; a series where Matt Ryan only throws to Tony Gonzalez, and then doesn’t throw to him the rest of the game; Michael Turner getting stuffed on third and short, followed by a shot of Mike Smith gritting his teeth, smiling, looking to the sky, and sending in the kicker; and of course the Falcons wide receiver with dreadlocks that isn’t on your fantasy team scoring a touchdown.  The Playoffs!

New York: 27, Atlanta: 17

BRONCOS over Steelers (-9)

Here’s the thing: the Steelers have not blown out bad teams on the road, like, all year (except for week 2).  And now they are supposed to do it without some of their key players and when their quarterback is going to be scrambling on one good leg, while Jesus is on the other sideline?  I see them winning comfortably, but not by nine, if that makes sense.

Pittsburgh: 16, Denver: 9

Happy New Year, everyone!

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