NFL Championship Sunday Preview

Ravens over PATRIOTS (-7.5)

The Patriots looked like a well-oiled machine in their divisional round playoff win over my Denver Broncos.  The Ravens looked like, well a team that did what they needed to do to get the job done with an assist from Jacoby Jones and a few from T.J. Yates (on a separate note, Yates threw the ball well the majority of the game; it’s just that his mistakes, even though they were less numerous than Flacco’s, were a lot bigger. i.e. interceptions.)  So since Tom Brady is no T.J. Yates, it should stand to reason that the Patriots will win comfortably, right?

No.

Here’s the thing: Denver is an anomaly.  They get phased by weird things when it comes to defenses.  Pittsburgh’s wasn’t much of a problem, whereas New England held them to one touchdown and a meaningless field goal after the game was out of reach.  My theory on this is pretty simple:  Tebow isn’t like most quarterbacks, ….if you haven’t realized.  (Now stay with me on this, because I’m going to break down the Denver game, and then relay it to this week.  I know, I know, Flacco, everyone talks about Tebow, but not you.  Don't worry.  I’ll get to you.)  Let’s say there is no defense whatsoever and the offense is just running routes.  There’s probably still times when the passes are incomplete.  My point is that Pittsburgh did a good job with schemes that would allow one guy to break free and get to the quarterback.  But when the play breaks down for Tebow, he goes into scramble/make-something-happen mode.  And when he does this, that one guy who gets to Tebow is 9 times out of 10 not going to bring him down…if he’s by himself.  Tebow can avoid defenders one at a time like almost no other quarterback.  The Steelers got to him quick, usually with Timmons or Harrison.  But never the whole package at once.  The Patriots on the other hand did not get to him all that quickly, but they got to him all at the same time.  There was nowhere for Tebow to go to because the whole line collapsed together.  (Tebow struggles to read defenses as it is, plus our receivers aren’t great, so our offense can struggle even when there is no pressure on him.)

Flacco, however, is different.  When he has time in the pocket, he can hit his receivers surprisingly accurately.  In the Texans game however, there were plenty of times that the rush got to him.  The Texans did a good job finding ways to get someone (usually JJ Watt) to make Flacco uncomfortable.  And that’s all it took really, on Sunday.  As soon as the play broke down, you knew Flacco was taking a sack, or making an errand pass.  The Texans got to him quickly and often. 

Now, flip to this Sunday.  The Patriots still do not get to the quarterback that quickly.  The performance in the Denver game I believe was a good matchup turning into favorable defensive stats.  Give Flacco that amount of time, and the Ravens offense should be able to put up plenty of points on the scoreboard.  (One caveat, if Ray Rice has a similar game as the one he had last Sunday, completely ignore that last sentence.)  Rice torched the Patriots in their playoff game two years ago, although was held in check the last time they played in the regular season.   This defense of the Patriots is not good; they are getting healthy, and the Denver game definitely gives them swagger, but after a few successful Ravens’ drives, that swagger could be gone.

Now, the problem is, the Patriots are no slouches on offense.  The Gronk/Hernandez duo is a total nightmare for most defenses, throw in the always scrappy Wes Welker, the reliable Deion Branch, and when Belichick feels like rubbing it in, Chad Ochocinco, and you have yourselves a potent offense.  The middle linebackers and safeties will have their hands full, while the D line and the outside linebackers led by T-Sizzle will need to make Brady throw before he wants to if the Ravens want to need less than 40 to win.

This is a favorable matchup for the Ravens.  The Patriots don’t run the ball, and when they do, it’s not too successful.  The Ravens love to pass rush.  The Ravens have a pocket passer that’s itching to prove he can throw against mediocre a secondary in a big game.  So far this postseason, when the matchup has been favorable (Denver against Pitt/NYG against GB), the underdog has taken advantage.  I think that happens again here.

RAVENS 31; PATRIOTS 26.

Giants over NINERS (-2.5)

I mentioned this in a tweet last week, and I’ve said things like it before this past year:  Whenever the Giants look really good, and everyone (particularly their fans) has faith in them, that’s when they like to drop a turd.  See, 2007 worked because the whole time, no one thought they were going to win the next game (I say no one in a general sense, I don’t need to hear what your outrageous prediction going into the playoffs was that year…).  More recently, this year, they looked awful against the Saints.  Like, awful.  Then their next two games, they go toe-to-toe with the Packers, which no one had done all year, and then they have that magnificent comeback performance against Dallas.

So naturally, just when people started believing (bELIeving, of course, which your can’t spell without ELI) again, boom, turd dropped.  But then, lo, Jets game followed by Dallas part two game, and then Falcons annihilation and Packers manhandling… the question very well becomes… when is that turd coming?  Will it be this week…?   Super Bowl Sunday…??  Or, when Giants’ fans hope, not until September next season in a game they should win, probably against the Redskins…?

Granted…the above was merely trends… nothing that would pass for any traditional analysis on this upcoming game between what are two very surprising stories, and two teams that, before the season, I definitely did not expect to still be standing.  You have to love the front seven of the Niners, and having three excellent pass rushers on one D-line like the Giants do is an offensive line’s nightmare. 

So what is the key in all of this?  What is going to decide the game?  Well I’m glad you hypothetically asked!  The answer is how the Niners choose to play the game.  The Niners can do one thing that I do not think the Giants will be able to do.  And that is run the ball effectively and take pressure off of their quarterback.  Frank Gore is the key to this game.  How the Niners choose to use him, how he performs against what isn’t a great run defense, and how Alex Smith plays off of the running game if it opens up, should give San Francisco an advantage.  The Niners can rush Manning and they also have the secondary to capitalize on mistakes.  They have been doing so all year.

T,he Giants, have not had a great secondary all year, but granted, they have dealt with numerous injuries all year, plus I believe they are at their healthiest point all season right now.  Healthy is good.  Also, their receivers (other than Ballard) on Sunday caught just about everything that was thrown their way, whereas the Packers' receivers uncharacteristically had the dropsies.

(One last sidenote...can you please stop telling me that the Packers' receivers are that much better than the Saints'?  I always hear, "oh but Rodgers has so many weapons..." ...what do you think Brees has?  I'll give you if we're doing just top two WR's, then yes, I'll take Jennings and Nelson over Colston and whichever wideout is #2 on the Saints' depth chart this week... but overall? It's pretty much a toss-up people... Henderson, Moore, Meachem.  Plus Brees has the luxury of Sproles in his backfield as a pass-catcher.  And, oh yeah, almost forgot.... Jimmy Graham, the best rookie tight end with a GR- last name this year, not named Gronkowski... aka the second best tight end, period.  Look, Brees has weapons, Rodgers has weapons.  No denying that.  Both of them have had tremendous seasons that, unfortunately for them, wrapped up last week.  If you think Brees has had a better season than Rodgers, then he is your MVP.  I think Rodgers has, so he would get my vote.  It is really close.  But don't use extraneous reasoning like "QB X has a better team around him", or my personal anti-favorite, "well if you take QB X off of team X, they would still be good."  Really?  That's how we're deciding MVP's?  So if Matt Flynn went out there and looked like the second coming of JaMarcus Russell, Rodgers would have a better case for MVP?  Plus, it was a meaningless game...don't you think the QB who is trying to prove he can play in the league as a starter might be a little motivated to perform well in that game than Rodgers?  Just saying.  Hypotheticals and what-if's as reasons for MVP awards do not make sense to me.  Grade the performances you see on the field, and take it from there. [drops mic])

But anyway, this really is a tough game to predict. I've gone back and forth on this a bunch...

But I can’t resist.  SupHAR BOUGH it is. 

                                  

49ERS: 22, GIANTS: 20.

PLAYOFF RECORD:

Last week:

Spread: 2-2
Non-Spread: 3-1

Playoffs:

Spread: 5-3
Non-Spread: 6-2

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NBA Preview

 

NBA Preview

East:

1.       HEAT

2.       BULLS

3.       CELTICS

4.       SIXERS

5.       MAGIC

6.       PACERS

7.       KNICKS

8.       HAWKS

West:

1.       THUNDER

TRAILBLAZERS
NUGGETS
SPURS
MAVS
CLIPPERS
LAKERS
ROCKETS

Notes – Spurs are hurt by the Ginobili loss but I still think they get the 2 seed over Dallas.  I like the Celtics to regroup and take the Atlantic.  Grizzlies are hurt by the Randolph injury, otherwise they would get 8^th over the Rockets, who I still don’t have much faith in.  In the east, the Hawks are hurt by the Horford injury, but I can’t take Cleveland over them, come on.

Early finals prediction: Heat over Celtics in 6 in ECF.  Thunder over Nuggets in 7. Heat over Thunder in 5.

Comments?  Leave one. 

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Wild Card Weekend Preview

 

I haven’t written anything for awhile, and I apologize for that.  I was busy doing one of the following: (a.) watching tv series’ that I got for Christmas, (b.) celebrating the New Year in Baltimore perhaps a bit too hard, (c.) watching my team painfully back into the playoffs, (d.) applying for way more jobs than I should have, or (e.) writing things for people/companies that aren’t worth my time.  So, it’s good to be back at my favorite place to write.

I am eventually going to get an NBA Preview written.  I tweeted here and here Christmas day briefly my quick NBA regular season standings, and I’m pleased with how most of them are looking, but will probably fix the west slightly to adjust for key injuries.  I know, I shouldn’t be able to do that.  Oh well.  It’s my blog.  It’s pretty much the only thing I can 100% control right now.

Anyway back to football. 

Some quick points on this year’s playoff teams:

1.       I cannot remember a year before this one where the top teams in the playoffs have had this many obvious flaws/injuries.  It won’t be easy to beat the Packers/Saints/Patriots, but it really does not take a genius to game plan for them, does it?  Ball control, short passes, run as successfully as possible, don’t go after their one big playmaker on defense, keep their hot QB on the sidelines, and when he is on the field, rush the bejesus out of him because he is most likely going to complete passes anyway.  As for the Steelers, these mounting injuries are just awful.  If I were a Steelers fan, I’d look at the AFC and go, really?  This should be even easier than last year, but now our quarterback is as mobile as a chair without wheels, our running back is gone and now we have a guy who fumbled twice against the Browns, we’re starting some fat guy from row 12 in our offensive line, and our safety can’t play in the first round or he might die.  I just don’t see how the Ravens don’t come out of the AFC.  More on that next week…

2.       I think the Patriots fans should be rooting for the Broncos on Sunday possibly even more than Broncos fans like me should be.  Here’s why:  The Patriots’ defense is atrocious.  Particularly their pass defense.  But let’s take a look at the other 5 quarterbacks in the AFC.  Joe Flacco (meh), T.J. Yates (with, of course, the threat of Jake Delhomme), Tim Tebow (rolls eyes), Andy Dalton (please…), and then Ben Roethlisberger.  If the Broncos were to somehow, someway take out the Steelers… the Patriots’ dreadful secondary would possibly only have to face a rookie and one slightly above average quarterback to reach the Super Bowl.

3.       I’m starting to think we actually won’t get the Packers/Saints NFC Championship game that we all (well, I at least) have been pushing for since Week 10.  It just seems too obvious.  These are the playoffs, remember.   This is the same spot where the 7-9 Seahawks beat went #BeastMode all over the Saints last year.  The Lions match up horribly against the Saints, so I highly doubt that happens this year, but I have a strange feeling that either the Saints or Packers go down in the divisional round.  I hope I’m wrong.

4.       The Falcons and Bengals are frauds.  I do not understand why people think either team is good.  Yet I can already see both of them possibly advancing because the Texans forgot how to win since they got that whole clinch-a-playoff-spot monkey off of their back, and the New York Giants are just as predictable as … hold on, before I make that analogy, I take it back.  The Giants aren’t unpredictable at all!  Rather, just when you think you have them figured out, they consistently prove you wrong.  They always do this!  Just when you thought they sucked, boom, Packers game and Cowboys game.  Just when you thought they were great, boom, Redskins game.  Forget the RomoCoaster, there should be an entire NFC East coaster.

5.       I think I speak for every rational Broncos fan when I say, stop teasing me with these Steelers injuries.  Stop it.  We’re not doing anything right offensively, why would it start now against the #1 ranked defense in the league?  It’s like the football gods are trying to make this game close, just to rip my heart out at the end.  (Also, scroll down about midway in this Bill Simmons piece, until you get to the email from Brett from Arkansas.  I would take that deal in a heartbeat.)

Ok, time for some picks.

I didn’t post my picks on here, but I went 8-8, winning every game after 4:00 except the Steelers and only getting the Packers, Eagles and Bears right in the early games (thanks Jets for that last minute touchdown.  I guess since you wrecked your winning season, you had to score that last touchdown to wreck my winning record in week 17.)

I finished the season 130-126 against the spread and a lot better without it.

As for this weekend:

TEXANS over Bengals (+3)

I have little confidence in this one, but I’m using logic.  Logic in the fact that Houston beat Cincinnati earlier, with T.J. Yates, at Cincinnati, and now gets to play them in a packed Houston house that hasn’t seen a playoff game I think since that one year the Yao and McGrady were both not injured…at least, at the end of the season.

Houston: 23, Cincinnati: 17

 Lions over SAINTS (-10.5)

Here’s the thing about the Lions: They can still score points.  I’m not sure who is going to cover Calvin Johnson, but I would still throw him the ball regardless.  Also, if the Saints get down 3 at the half like 17-14, and then maybe by 10 midway through the third, the whole building is going to be thinking “not again…not this late game wildcard weekend shit, againnnnn”.

New Orleans: 34, Detroit: 30

GIANTS over Falcons (+3)

I think I'm most confident about this pick. But I'm actually more confident you will see each of the following:  a 7-yard completion from Eli to Victor Cruz that goes for 60 more yards after the catch, inflating Eli’s stat line; a series where Matt Ryan only throws to Tony Gonzalez, and then doesn’t throw to him the rest of the game; Michael Turner getting stuffed on third and short, followed by a shot of Mike Smith gritting his teeth, smiling, looking to the sky, and sending in the kicker; and of course the Falcons wide receiver with dreadlocks that isn’t on your fantasy team scoring a touchdown.  The Playoffs!

New York: 27, Atlanta: 17

BRONCOS over Steelers (-9)

Here’s the thing: the Steelers have not blown out bad teams on the road, like, all year (except for week 2).  And now they are supposed to do it without some of their key players and when their quarterback is going to be scrambling on one good leg, while Jesus is on the other sideline?  I see them winning comfortably, but not by nine, if that makes sense.

Pittsburgh: 16, Denver: 9

Happy New Year, everyone!

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NFL Week 16 Handicapper

Week 16 PICKS

Home teams is CAPS:

BILLS over Broncos (-3.5)

Cardinals over BENGALS (-4.5) (and to win)

Browns over RAVENS (-13.5)

TITANS over Jaguars (+7.5)

Raiders over CHIEFS (-0.5) (and to win)

Rams over STEELERS (-15.5) (thank you, pre-Big Ben status line)

PATRIOTS over Dolphins (+10.5)

REDSKINS over Vikings (+6.5)

JETS over Giants (+2.5)

PANTHERS over Bucs (+7.5)

Chargers over LIONS (-2.5) (and to win)

Eagles over COWBOYS (-2.5) (and to win)

SEAHAWKS over 49ers (-2.5) (and to win)

PACKERS over Bears (+12.5)

Falcons over SAINTS (-6.5)

LAST WEEK:

Spread: 9-7

Non-Spread: 7-9

SEASON:

Spread: 116-108

Non-Spread: 140-82

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NFL Week 15 Handicapper

Jaguars at Falcons (-11.5)

This already happened, but I wanted to show people that I finally got another Thursday game correct, giving me a grand total of 2 with the spread (Packers/Lions)

Pick: Falcons

Cowboys at Bucs (+6.5)

It is rare that there are teams that I trust the Cowboys to beat by more than a touchdown.  So at least feel good about that, Tampa.

Pick: Cowboys

Dolphins at Bills (PK)

This is tough because it’s a pick-em spread, which means that you have to straight up pick a winner.  And that’s pretty tough to do considering the Bills have been in freefall mode ever since they gave Ryan Fitzpatrick an 11-year, $100 billion contract* and the Dolphins just fired their coach 5 weeks since the last time they played poorly.  So I don’t exactly think of either of these teams as winners.  Maybe I’ll predict a tie.

*figures estimated

Pick: Dolphins

Seahawks at Bears (-4.5)

I think this line moved down to 3.5 which makes sense, considering one team is on the rise and the other is giving up hail mary passes to Tyler Palko and voluntarily giving Tim Tebow time on the clock. Did I convince you yet?

Pick: Seahawks (and to win)

Bengals at Rams (+6.5)

What do you think the chances are that Josh McDaniels hires a stand-in to run the Rams offense this weekend so he can fly to Denver in disguise to watch his beloved Tim Tebow face his dear Tom Brady?  

Pick: Bengals

Packers at Chiefs (+13.5)

If you told me one of these two teams had their star receiver injured this past weekend, I would have bet the house that it was Kansas City, considering Matt Cassell, Jamaal Charles, and Eric Berry have missed a combined 32 games.  In other news, don’t you think the Packers secretly love the fact that Denver is getting all the attention?  They might go 19-0 and only remembered for being the first team to beat Tebow in a close game in their 24-21 victory in Super Bowl XLVI.

Pick: Packers

Titans at Colts (+6.5)

Just throw the ball, Jake! Just throw it! Don’t take a sack!

Also, if the Colts were to somehow win in either this game or against the Texans and then inevitably destroy Jacksonville in Week 17, it would be possible for them to get the #2 or #3 pick, which would be just their….LUCK. #horriblepuns

Pick: Titans

Saints at Vikings (-7.5)

Two years ago, this was the NFC Championship.  Just saying.

Pick: Saints

Redskins at Giants (-7.5)

I want the Giants to win the NFC East pretty badly, mostly so we can get a Giants/Falcons first round game and a favorable line so I can bet the house against the Falcons, and I can’t do that if Tony Romo is quarterbacking the NFC East champions.  So let’s go G-MEN!

Pick: Giants

Panthers at Texans (-6.5)

The Texans are currently the #1 seed in the AFC, but if they win out, the Patriots win out, and the Ravens win out, they end up with the #3 seed.  What a pretty crappy deal that is!  The Texans are the Boise State of the AFC.

Pick: Panthers

Lions at Raiders (+1.5)

This has Raiders rebound game written all over it, although I must say, those past two games against the Dolphins and Packers were probably the worst games I’ve seen the Raiders play since … well, the Jamarcus Russell days… but yeah, they were bad.

Pick: Raiders (and to win)

Browns at Cardinals (-6.5)

So who’s pumped for week 17 to see the play-in game between Arizona and Seattle for the 6 seed in the NFC? I’m not kidding.

Pick: Cardinals

Patriots at Broncos (+6.5)

I hate everything about this game.  I hate the matchup.  I hate that we’re 6-1 against Tom Brady.  I hate that this line is absurdly unfair to the Broncos.  I hate that we used to matchup decently against the Patriots but now matchup better against a Steelers or Texans team.  I hate that the Patriots can stop the run but not the pass.  Most of all, I hate being in the Philadelphia area so I don’t get this game because NBC decided not to flex Tim Tebow versus Tom Brady, but keep Joe Flacco versus Philip Rivers.  Here’s to hoping for another heart attack.

Pick: Broncos

Jets at Eagles (-2.5)

So when the Jets and Ravens meet in the Divisional round, are we going to get a better game than we saw in week 4? Please say yes.  Also, I feel sorry for the 50 yard line this weekend when Andy Reid and Rex Ryan meet to shake hands after the game.

Pick: Jets (and to win)

Ravens at Chargers (+2.5)

I’m picking against San Diego in December.  Remind me I did this when they win the division, please. Thanks.

Pick: Ravens

Steelers at 49ers (-1.5)

Best line on Twitter I saw during last week’s Steelers/Browns Thursday game: “Ben Roethlisberger will just not be denied, even when limp.”

Pick: Steelers (and to win)

Last week:

Spread: 9-7

Non-Spread: 10-6

Overall:

Spread: 107-101

Non-Spread: 133-73

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NFL Week 14 Handicapper (and Power Poll!)

ROMO POWER POLL:

I got into a slight debate this past week with a few of my friends as to who the top teams in the league are right now.  Granted, I am not really a fan of power rankings that much, but nonetheless they are always a good discussion, and everyone has their own opinion. 

The thing that I was arguing foremost before it got into a power ranking discussion, was that, as a whole, the NFL is having a down year production-wise.  This point would be way easier to see for other people if it were not for the season Green Bay is having (grrrr…how dare you play football at a high level…).  I think there were a few things that were either lost on what I was saying, or just need added emphasis.  First off, even though I think this (and so should you, it is quite obvious), it is not necessarily a bad thing.  The entire AFC and the rest of the NFC (for what it’s worth) are completely wide open.  There is a case for all four 9-3 teams in the AFC (let’s say that Pitt is still 9-3) as to who is the best team.   Also, the slew of 7-5 teams in both conferences makes for some very intriguing games to say the least, even if it isn’t the best football you’ll see in your lifetime.

Anyway, the main thing is this: Both the AFC and the NFC are having down years. 

This is the best way I can explain it: Let’s look at the AFC first.  The Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers are all 9-3…But haven’t we seen them all play better football in years past?  Last year, the Patriots went 14-2 and Brady threw 4 interceptions all year.  They had the best offense in the league and an above-average defense that did not allow many points.  This year’s team is not nearly as good.  Steelers?  Last year had the best defense as far as points allowed and Roethlisberger had just 5 interceptions. The 2008 team that won the Super Bowl had a way better defense and more efficient offense.  Essentially they looked better in 2008 and 2010 than they do this year as well.  And the Ravens?  While the Ravens have improved defensively from their past 2 years, the offense is pretty much exactly the same where it has been the past two, with the exception of Ray Rice’s productivity increase.  Plus, while they in my opinion are the best team in the AFC so far this year, their unpredictability has caused concern heading into the playoffs.  Looking at other teams, the Jets, although they will probably finish the regular season with at least a 9-7 record and possibly a 10-6 one, which would give them their best regular season finish under Rex Ryan, they too have looked better in years past.  The Texans have significantly improved on defense, and have a great running game, but there are causes of concern since they are without their first two quarterbacks and have Andre Johnson on and off again with reoccurring injuries. 

In the NFC, there is a similar story.  Ignore the Packers for a second again.  The two other best teams in the conference are the 10-2 49ers and the 9-3 Saints.  The 49ers are a great story and Jim Harbaugh is likely the coach of the year.  But do the 49ers really scare anybody?  There is no denying that they have a great defense, but offensively they could not do a single thing against Baltimore on Thanksgiving.  Shutting out the Rams is cool, but you are not facing the Rams in the playoffs.  The Saints and Packers can score.  Speaking of the Saints, they just look completely lost at times on defense.  The Packers rank lower defensively, but there at least seems to be some sort of sense that everyone is on the same page, and they know they can afford to gamble.  The Saints defense at least once a week has two safeties looking at each other in confusion.  All I know is that if the second best team the NFC has to offer is the 2011 version of the 49ers or the Saints, the 2009 Vikings are probably in complete disbelief.

And while the Packers are having a tremendous season, has their offense really improved more than their defense has fallen?  Would the 2010 Packers beat the 2011 Packers?  Plus, what if they do not win it all?  Even if they do finish 16-0, it would then be seen as a down year for them too, would it not?    

So now, without further ado, here is, with 4 games left to go, the 2011 ROMO POWER POLL.

1.       Packers – duh.

2.       Ravens – Most complete team in the AFC, beaten the Steelers twice, have the formula to win in the playoffs.  Also, winning against quality teams should count more than losing against bad teams.

3.       Steelers – Big Ben isn’t having his best year, but he’s still having a good one.  Beat New England, lost to Houston and Baltimore.

4.       Saints – Slightly better than San Francisco, need to win a game away from the dome. 

5.       Patriots – Very solid offensively, questionable at times on defense.  Beat Oakland on the road, and NYJ twice, have an easy schedule rest of the way minus a trip to Denver.

6.       49ers – Very solid defensively but have not beaten anyone good.  Alex Smith is having his best year, but I’ll let you know when I trust him.

7.       Texans – Would be higher most likely without their injuries.  Very solid on both sides of the ball.  TJ Yates has to be a good game manager for them to do anything in the postseason

(Note: 2-7 are incredibly bunched together.  Could be considered 2a.-2f.)

And here comes the mess of 7-5 teams that are incredibly tough to separate.  None of them are any good, but because #’s 2-7 are all beatable, we still must pay attention to them.

8.       Lions – I really wanted to pick someone else to go here, but due to their offensive capability, they get here by default.  Built to destroy bad teams, and play mediocre against good teams.

9.       Broncos – Clearly jinxing my own team, but again, who else should go here?  Improved defensively (though not as much as everybody thinks), wins against other 7-5 teams (Jets, Bengals) are another reason they are up here.

10.   Jets – Literally, every time I look to come up with who to put next, I go to type it am just like “Really? (team x) is the (eighth, ninth, and now tenth) best team in the NFL?” Very good defensively, starting to trust their run game again, and Sanchez is back to fooling us into thinking he’s decent again.

11.   Bengals – Some people have them way higher, others have them lower…but they would currently have the sixth AFC seed right now.  I actually think the Titans are a better team, but they did win at Nashville.

12.   Titans – Sneaky team that could grab the last spot.  Chris Johnson is looking like he deserves half the money he got in his contract again.

13.   Falcons – I’m sorry, but I must have missed the meeting where we decided that the Falcons were head and shoulders above every other 7-5 team.  Matt Ryan just looks lost at times, especially against good defenses.  They won at Detroit, and home against Tennessee, but lost against Tampa and Chicago, plus at home against a Saints team that tried to give them that game…until they decided they would rather re-gift the game back to New Orleans.

14.   Cowboys – God the NFC East is so bad this year.  Romo has games where he looks like everything is going for him, and then he has others where he gets fooled by some of the easiest coverages.  (Hint, don’t throw to Revis, ESPECIALLY if he has over the top help)

15.   Raiders – The defensive woes are starting to mount.  Beat the Jets and the Texans in that Win for Al Davis game, but lost to the Chiefs, Bills, and the Dolphins.

16.   Giants – Another Jekyll and Hyde team, but at least looked good last week despite losing.  If they can play consistently like that, they’ll make the playoffs, but the thing is, they can’t.

17.   Bears – Would be higher if they still had Matt Forte and to a lesser degree Jay Cutler.  And as my friend Adam Vida would say, if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.

(Note: to save you and me time, I’ll just list the rest of my teams)

18.   Seahawks

19.   Cardinals

20.   Chargers

21.   Dolphins

22.   Bills

23.   Eagles

24.   Panthers

25.   Chiefs

26.   Redskins

27.   Bucs

28.   Browns

29.   Jaguars

30.   Vikings

31.   Rams

32.   Colts

That was completely vomit-endusing.  I don’t know how anyone can say the NFC or AFC is not having down years.  Just ask yourself, does my team honestly look better this year than it does last year.  Chances are you are saying no. (I admittedly am saying yes, but …c’mon.)

Let’s get to some picks.

                                            

Falcons at Panthers (+2.5)

Despite the Falcons’ offense looking completely inept the last couple weeks, they now get to play the Panthers which seems to be the cure to most teams’ offensive woes.  Also, I’ve now read articles in the past week about how Aaron Rodgers is not the MVP (Brady is) and Cam Newton is not the Rookie of the Year (Andy Dalton is).  Honestly, people, why make your job harder than it needs to be.  This is the easiest year in the last five to pick both those awards. (Hint: it’s not Brady or Dalton)

Pick: Falcons

Texans at Bengals (-3.5)

This is a bad matchup for the Texans, but could be what the T.J. Yates doubters need to realize that the Texans will be alright without Matt Schaub.  The Bengals are probably the best out of the AFC’s 7-5 teams, but that does not really say much.

Pick: Bengals

Vikings at Lions (-7.5)

The Lions are built to feast on bad teams, and if Tim Tebow can torch your secondary, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson should be resting in the fourth quarter.

Pick: Lions

Saints at Titans (+3.5)

This past week or so I have spent defending two teams in particular: the Texans and the Saints.  However, I feel like both of them go down this week due to bad matchups.  Also, it hardly seems fair that Chris Johnson is good again right before the fantasy playoffs.

Pick: Titans (and to win)

Colts at Ravens (-16.5)

You know, it IS time for the Ravens customary “one step back” part of their “three steps forward then one step back” routine that they are doing this season… Just saying.

Pick: Colts

Chiefs at Jets (-8.5)

Oh man the Chiefs have become a terrible team.  Meanwhile, the Jets need this game to keep pace with the 7-5’s of the world.  Plus the week 17 game against the Dolphins is probably going to be a competitive game instead of the usual “We will now rest our starters and allow the Jets to make the playoffs” end-of-the-year game.

Pick: Jets

Eagles at Dolphins (-3.5)

The Dolphins have clearly turned it around since their 0-7 start.  In other news, would the rest of the NFC East please stop sucking so I don’t have to hear every local reporter keep saying “you know (laughs) as bad as it’s been (looks to the other reporters) the Eagles are actually still in this!”

Pick: Eagles (and to win)

Patriots at Redskins (+8.5)

Patriots win big.  Bonus prediction: Every time the Pats get into the red zone this week, Belichick will have Brady will throw to Aaron Hernandez this week instead of Rob Gronkowski, solely to piss off the fantasy owners that have rode Gronk’s coattails all year long.

Pick: Patriots

Buccaneers at Jaguars (+1.5)

In depth Bucs-Jags analysis! Click here!

Pick: Buccaneers

Bears at Broncos (-3.5)

Last week’s Broncos game will hopefully show people two things.  First, people have wanted to deflect praise from Tebow for so long, and have done so by giving it to our defense.  They have done so for so long now, that our defense is now more overrated than our quarterback.  In fact, while they have played infinitely better than I’ve seen them play the past 4 years, it still is a very beatable defense, especially if you can avoid the pass rush.  The second thing is that Tebow can get better as a passer, he just needs the reps.  That’s why, god forbid, if we ever get a game where we are leading by a comfortable margin, I want to see nothing but passes instead of the usual runs to kill the clock.  Also, this is the first time that the Broncos were even good enough to warrant a trap game in forever.

Pick: Bears

49ers at Cardinals (+3.5)

Answer me this: Of all the teams 7-5 or better, how many have improved in BOTH offense and defense from last year? (Hint: one, the 49ers).

Pick: 49ers

Bills at Chargers (-6.5)

If you want an outside chance at making a lot of money, put a small amount of money on the Chargers winning the Super Bowl.  I’ll believe they don’t win the AFC West when I see it.

Pick: Chargers

Raiders at Packers (-11.5)

This is another somewhat favorable matchup for the team facing the Packers.  But before you go making any bold predictions, just think: What do I trust more late in the game, Aaron Rodgers with the season he’s on, or Carson Palmer against an opportunistic defense?

Pick: Packers

Giants at Cowboys (-3.5)

The Giants played their best game of the season and still lost.  The Cowboys could have basically wrapped up the division despite the two Giants games still left to go, but iced their own kicker.  The NFC East!

Pick: Giants (and to win)

Rams at Seahawks (-6.5)

I’m going to throw out a confession:  I would watch the Seahawks play the Dolphins right now and probably be thoroughly entertained.

Pick: Seahawks

Last Week:

Spread: 11-5
Non Spread: 12-4

Season:

Spread: 98-94 (back over .500 bitches!)
Non-Spread: 123-68


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NFL Handicapper Week 13

No witty descriptions today unfortunately, since my computer crashed last night and didn't save...thankfully that never happened at school.

Anyway, here are the picks, home teams CAPS:

Falcons (-2.5) over TEXANS
Titans (+1.5) over BILLS - and to win
Chiefs (+8.5) over BEARS
Bengals (+7.5) over STEELERS
Broncos (+1.5) over VIKINGS - and to win
PATRIOTS (-20.5) over Colts
Raiders (+2.5) over DOLPHINS
Jets (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Panthers (+1.5) over BUCS - and to win
Ravens (-6.5) over BROWNS
CARDINALS (+6.5) over Cowboys
GIANTS (+6.5) over Packers
Rams (+13.5) over 49ERS
SAINTS (-6.5) over Lions
Chargers (-2.5) over JAGUARS



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